Donald Trump has gotten into a major “whose tariffs are bigger” contest with China, with ever-bigger tariffs threatened on each side. That could have significant political as well as economic consequences, because a lot of people—especially farmers—in Trump-voting rural counties are getting nervous. And no wonder. Large numbers of jobs are on the line if these tariff threats become reality. That’s why threatened tariffs are making themselves felt in congressional races:
Many Republican candidates who represent rural areas Trump won in 2016 are being forced to choose between his trade policies and community interests. Vulnerable Republicans are walking a tightrope.
In eastern Washington, seven-term Republican Rep. Cathy McMorris Rodgers had already found herself in an unexpectedly tight race. She has urged the White House to “reverse course” on the Chinese tariffs in recent days.
On many issues, Trump’s danger to Republicans is that he energizes the Democratic base and alienates independents. But this is one where Republican votes are in danger:
In southwestern Minnesota, soybean farmer Bill Gordon says the volatility in the markets makes it harder for farmers like him to market their crop and lock in profitability. The state is the country’s fourth-largest exporting state, and the state’s top farm export market is China.
A Trump voter, Gordon said right now he’s disappointed, not angry, over what’s happening. But the trade tensions could affect his vote in the open race for the region’s congressional seat, where the farm vote is significant.
“I vote for the people who represent rural America,” he said. “It’s not a party line.”
There was speculation when Trump announced steel and aluminum tariffs that the move, or at least the timing, was intended to help boost Rick Saccone in the special election in Pennsylvania’s 18th Congressional District. If that was the intent, it didn’t work … but it might end up influencing more than just that one race.