A combination of Republican negligence and the actions of Donald Trump appears to be eroding support of one the GOP's longtime loyal voting blocs: old white college-educated Americans. A new Reuters/Ipsos poll along with data analysis of competitive districts suggests that, should the trend continue, Republicans are in for a rout in November.
Nationwide, whites over the age of 60 with college degrees now favor Democrats over Republicans for Congress by a 2-point margin, according to Reuters/Ipsos opinion polling during the first three months of the year. During the same period in 2016, that same group favored Republicans for Congress by 10 percentage points.
The 12-point swing is one of the largest shifts in support toward Democrats that the Reuters/Ipsos poll has measured over the past two years. If that trend continues, Republicans will struggle to keep control of the House of Representatives, and possibly the Senate, in the November elections, potentially dooming President Donald Trump’s legislative agenda.
“The real core for the Republicans is white, older white, and if they’re losing ground there, they’re going to have a tsunami,” said Larry Sabato, a University of Virginia political scientist who closely tracks political races. “If that continues to November, they’re toast.”
From Sabato's lips to the ears of the goddess above and within. It's perhaps not surprising that one of these voters’ chief concerns is health care, though some also anecdotally mentioned their disapproval of the GOP tax law and support for stricter gun laws.
The number of educated older adults choosing “healthcare” in the Reuters/Ipsos poll as their top issue nearly tripled over the past two years, from 8 percent to 21 percent. The poll did not ask respondents precisely what their concerns about healthcare were.
Whatever their reason, this group of voters is particularly key to any election, especially in tight races, because they are almost certain to turn out. The evidence that they have steadily moved away from Republicans over the past couple years only stands to boost Democrats' chances of scoring major gains in November.
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