The latest news today out of Indiana courtesy of Gravis Marketing’s latest poll:
Democrats face an uphill battle in the Senate due to the 2018 map. They may, however be in a stronger position than may have been expected according to a new Gravis Marketing likely vote poll of Indiana. The poll was conducted using an online panel between April 6th and 11th. The poll gives Democratic Incumbent Senator Joe Donnelly 50%-32% edge over Republican Congressman Todd Rokita and a 46%-36% lead over Republican Congressman Luke Messer. Both match-ups resulted in 18% of respondents identifying as “uncertain.” Joe Donnelly has a 37%-32% approval rating in this new Gravis poll which is slightly weaker than the recent Morning Consult Poll that gave Donnelly a 42%-32% approval spread.
The largest surprise in the poll may be in the Republican Primary. Gravis found former State Representative Mike Braun leading the field with 26%. Second place was Congressman Todd Rokita at 16% followed by Congressman Luke Messer at 13%. The likely voter sample for the Republican primary has a 5.9% margin of error. Therefore, the Senate race is still within the margin of error. 45% of voters remain undecided, leaving a path for Rokita or Messer to make up the needed ground before May 8th. The uncertainty of the Republican primary may be contributing to the poor performance Messer and Rokita are showing against Donnelly in the general election match-up.
The good news for Democrats, however, ends with the Senate race. Voters indicate that they intend to support a Republican for Congress over a Democrat by a 49%-37% margin. The most recent election where all nine of Indiana’s Congressional races were contested by both major parties was 2014. That year, the Republican party won 58.78% of total Congressional votes in Indiana to 37.42% for Democrats. That same year, Republicans won the National popular vote for the House of Representatives by 51.2%-45.5%. This suggests that while voters may be willing to send Donnelly back to Washington as a “check” on the President, they are weary of giving Democrats control of the House as well.
I’m skeptical of the GCB numbers and I don’t know why they didn’t test Donnelly against head to head numbers with Mike Braun (R. IN). However, these numbers are positive and the fact that voters see Donnelly as a “check” on Trump proves he’s getting crossover voters and that’s going to be key to his success. But it’s still early and we have to be ready for anything. Click here to donate and get involved with Donnelly’s re-election campaign.