The NY Times election results page has a beautiful map of blue shift in a very red district, every precinct except one showing the dramatic change compared to the 2016 general election. And, notably, the blue shift is trending higher than before.
Hiral Tipirneni (D), 82,318 47.4%
Debbie Lesko (R) 91,390 52.6%
From the NY Times:
Tuesday’s special election in Arizona’s Eighth Congressional District, in the conservative suburbs outside Phoenix, revealed the depth of Republicans’ political challenges in 2018. Ms. Lesko was favored to win over Hiral Tipirneni, a Democrat and emergency room doctor, in a district that supported Donald J. Trump in 2016 by more than 20 points.
Even so, national Republicans spent more than $1 million to help Ms. Lesko. With an outcome this close in a district that should have Republicans winning big, it is another sign of Democratic enthusiasm, organizational muscle and determination to send a message about President Trump and his party.
NBC News: Republicans won in Arizona last night. But the margin should scare them.
In a district that President Trump carried by 21 points in 2016 — and which Mitt Romney won by 25 in 2012 — Republican Debbie Lesko pulled off a 6-point win over Democrat Hiral Tipirneni, 53 percent to 47 percent.
Yes, a win is a win. But that 15-point Democratic overperformance from the 2016 presidential election is greater than the Dems’ 12-point average in the previous eight major contests of 2017 and 2018 (KS-4, GA-6, MT-AL, SC-5, NJ GOV, VA GOV, AL-SEN, PA-18).
And if Democrats are hitting 47 percent of the vote in a heavily GOP-leaning district like AZ-8 — without a scandal-plagued GOP nominee (like we saw in Alabama), without an exceptional candidate (like Conor Lamb in PA-18), and when the GOP outspends them by about $1 million to $0 in national party money — that suggests they’re set up well for November’s statewide Senate contest in Arizona, as well as dozens of House races across the country.
Here’s Fox News with this AP report:
GLENDALE, Ariz. (AP) —
It took a big money push from the Republican Party, tweets by the president and the support of the state's current and former governors, but the GOP held onto an Arizona U.S. House seat they would have never considered endangered in any other year.
Tuesday's narrow victory by Republican Debbie Lesko over a Democratic political newcomer sends a big message to Republicans nationwide: Even the reddest of districts in a red state can be in play this year ….
This election quantifies how many more voters we need to register and/or turn out to wipe them off the map. It can be done.