After weeks of negotiations in which it became clear that North Korea was not going to hand Trump everything he wanted before the meeting began, Trump cancelled his meeting with North Korean dictator Kim Jong-un with one of the oddest letters in the history of communication between states.
Therefore, please let this letter serve to represent that the Singapore summit, for the good of both parties, but to the detriment of the world, will not take place. You talk about your nuclear capabilities, but ours are so massive and powerful that I pray to God they will never have to be used.
But within two days, Trump called reports that the summit was not happening “fake news.” Then, when experts mentioned that it would be difficult to resolve issues in time to make the original June 12 meeting date, Trump declared that it would be on June 12. And now the New York Times reports that US and Korean diplomats are “racing” in an “urgent” effort to meet that date. Because if there is anything that would help in a circumstance where international stability and nuclear war is at risk, it’s acting in haste on an artificial deadline.
US negotiating efforts are being led by deputy chief of staff Joe Hagin, who also served seven years with the George W. Bush administration, so he has some experience. On the other hand, he served seven years with the George W. Bush administration. His best quality is: Not John Bolton.
The day before writing his cancellation letter, Trump backed away from earlier demands about a denuclearization agreement or following the “Libyan model.” It’s not clear that anything has changed from North Korea’s perspective. Kim had already agreed to “close” a nuclear testing facility that was actually destroyed in the most recent underground test. Since getting Trump to agree to the meeting was their primary goal, it’s not obvious that North Korea has any interest in the meeting after the initial handshake.
It is clear that, in this instance as with so many others, Trump has baffled allies and frustrated diplomats by driving policy off of spur of the moment decisions. It’s already cost the US both in terms of the ability to impose sanctions or to unite allies behind any resulting agreement.
If the on-off-on meeting stays in place this time, there is the possibility of genuine progress. North Korea might agree to some form of inspection regime in return for relaxed sanctions. The meeting might even build off recent warmer relations between North and South to start a genuine opening up of the isolated state. But Kim would seem to have little reason to desire that change, China appears be giving North Korea leverage, and Trump is simply ill-suited to any difficult negotiation.
Not only does his bristling response to criticism over the cancellation letter and insistence that everything carry on as if he had never written about his “massive and powerful” capabilities demonstrate his fickle commitment to the process, all of this comes on top of the background of Trump breaking the nuclear treaty with Iran — an act that demonstrated that the crooked-dealing which marked Trump’s real estate career would translate into international affairs. The result of that action makes anything Trump signs meaningless. And everyone knows it.
The most likely outcome of the Singapore meeting, if it happens, is that North Korea walks away with its arsenal intact and sanctions weakened. Donald Trump walks away claiming victory.
Which is where things already stand. So they might as well stay home, where at least the two of them aren’t likely to come to nuclear blows over the quality of the cake.