Donald Trump has announced that he will, despite previous statements to the contrary, impose tariffs on aluminum and steel even on Canada, Mexico, and other U.S. allies. Commerce Secretary Wilbur Ross made the announcement in a morning press call, and to give everyone time to prepare, these tariffs will go into effect … at midnight.
When Trump initially announced these tariffs at the beginning of March, he quickly backpedaled after discovering that his actions endangered trade relationships around the world and threatened to harm some of his most dedicated supporters. The immediate response to Trump’s imposition of tariffs was retaliation in the form of tariffs and restrictions on American agricultural goods. Trump initially shrugged this off by declaring that farmers are “great patriots” and that he would “make it up to them” at some unspecified time, in some unspecified way—a sentiment that will be no doubt comforting to those who lose their family farms over crashing prices.
Trump staffers almost immediately began a stumbling retreat from Trump’s initial announcement. Waivers were granted to the EU, Canada, Mexico in order to provide more time to work out a solution. But apparently the efforts to find a compromise between reasonable approach and Trump have failed. The tariffs will roll out on Thursday night, hitting both allies and opponents with equal fervor.
Tariffs can be fair. Tariffs can even be necessary. But the way in which Trump is implementing tariffs is both chaotic and damaging. As with his capricious energy policies and coal, Trump seems more interested in checking a box with the pretense of “doing something” about the decades long decline of the metals industry in the U.S., than actually taking substantive action. And in both cases he’s willing to check that box no matter what the real-world cost.
It’s unclear just how well farmers can feed their families on their great patriotism, or how well they can put off their bills with obscure future promises. But it appears they’re going to get to try.
Chaos has been the U.S. ‘strategy’ since Donald Trump took office, because if there’s one promise that Trump really has followed through on, it’s his commitment to never let anyone know what he will do next. That includes U.S. allies. And his staff. And the people who are supposed to be negotiating trade agreements.
In recent weeks, allies have repeatedly complained of Trump’s fickle positions and inconsistent statements. He’s highlighted this chaos on the diplomatic side by first breaking the Iran nuclear agreement, then making, breaking, and attempting to re-make, an appointment with North Korean dictator Kim Jong-un.
Trump’s tariffs on steel and aluminum will cost everyone—because that’s what tariffs do. But Trump’s erratic behavior in instituting those tariffs means that they will help no one, even those who might normally benefit, because absolutely no one believes that Trump will be consistent enough, long enough, to justify any investment in new US capacity. In the meantime, his actions are actually driving multiple trade agreements between countries that normally considered the United States their most reliable partner.
Donald Trump has stated that it’s easy to win a trade war. And maybe it is … when negotiating against Trump.