I don’t know, but I get this vibe from Trump supporting farmers that they have bought a condo on the River Denial when it comes to Trump’s tariffs. From MSNBC, I’ve seen report after report from Trump supportering farmers that they are concerned about what affects Trump’s tariffs may have on selling their crops overseas and on their own incomes. BUT there is always the refrain that essentially comes down to this: “This may be tough patch, but Trump is such a master negotiator that he will triumph in the end.”
Or some such drivel. It all sounds the same after you listen to pork producers in Iowa, potato growers in Idaho, and soybean farmers in Kentucky. Basically, they sound a little scared but believe Trump will work it all out.
Take for instance the guy who ran for Ag Sec in Iowa on the Republican side — Ray Gaesser:
“We’re all concerned about tariffs,” said Gaesser. “I am an adviser to President Trump, and I’ve shared with him the impact of tariffs on people here. In general, our Republican farmers support the president and I support the president. He just needs to know how it’s going to affect us in agriculture.
“I would say [to Iowa farmers] that he’s been a negotiator his whole life. We knew what we were getting when we elected President Trump and it’s his model of negotiations and we needed to be prepared for that model. Something needed to be done. We have issues on trade that need to be balanced. We need trade but we need fair trade. Some of our customers aren’t treating us fairly and we need to work on that. I believe they will get solved, but it may take a little time. I don’t know.”
However, some other farmer organizations are not as sanquine about the trade war outcome. Take for instance The Morning AG Clips, a farm news site. They had this lovely bit of news:
The Chinese Commerce Department announced several months ago that it could impose new retaliatory tariffs on 106 U.S. goods amounting to roughly $50 billion in imports. China specifically announced it would impose a 25 percent tariff on U.S. soybeans. While this threat has not been renewed, we do not expect China to stand down if the U.S. imposes tariffs after June 15. (Note: this sentence does not sound very strong in its Trumpian fervor that everything is going to plan).
According to a study conducted by Purdue University, soybean exports to China could drop dramatically if China chooses to impose a 25 percent tariff on U.S. soybeans. The Purdue study projects that China’s soybean imports from the U.S. would fall by 65%, total U.S. soy exports would drop by 37%, and U.S. soybean production would decline by 15%.
And what has just been announced by the Chinese? You guessed it! Soybean tariffs!
Trade tensions between the U.S. and China ratcheted higher after the Asian nation said it will follow through on plans to levy tariffs on a range of American farm goods including soybeans and corn…
Farm commodities have been a key battleground in the escalating trade war between the world’s two biggest economies. China previously announced plans to impose 25 percent duties on products including soybeans, wheat, corn, sorghum, cotton and beef in response to proposed tariffs from the U.S. In April, the Asian nation started levying additional taxes on American fruit, nuts, pork and wine.
Maybe a 37% drop in U.S. soy exports is in the offing?
My basic city slicker read of this situation is that Trump supporting farmers have not had the full affect of tariffs hit them yet. Once this happens and they see no plan from Trump on how to get out of this trade war with a “win,” there might not be a whole lot of faith left in Trump’s great negotiationg skills. You will not see any of this on the evening news though. I have this funny feeling that Trump supporting farmers that get hurt financially will not be eager to approach TV cameras to say, “Give him time! Trump will TRIUMPH!”
Nevertheless, I would love to get any feedback that rural Kossaks experience. I may easily be proven wrong in my prognostications, so anyone out in the farm belts, please feel free to make comments.