Dave Leonhardt/NY Times:
Yet the confirmation process could still turn out to be productive for Democrats — or it could become the worst of all worlds, both frustrating and damaging. The key now for the party and its voters is to understand the difference between those outcomes. Here’s a three-step guide to doing so.
Step one: Be realistic.
Trump’s nominee is overwhelmingly likely to be confirmed regardless of what actions Democrats take. Republicans hold the Senate majority, and every Republican senator — yes, including Susan Collins and Lisa Murkowski — has a history of voting for judges like those Trump is considering. Collins and Murkowski have a script: They make centrist-sounding statements, to shore up their images, and then vote aye.
So Democrats should go into the confirmation debate recognizing that it is almost certainly unwinnable. It will not depend on how hard Democratic leaders fight or which tactics they choose, alluring as that fantasy may be. In these polarized times, court nominations unite political parties, even more than individual issues, like, say, health care.
Step three: Know your strengths.
Some Democrats will be tempted to turn the next two months into a national conversation about abortion, affirmative action and other social issues that inspire liberal passion. That would be a mistake. Those are not the best issues for Democrats during a midterm campaign.
It’s not abolish ICE, it’s end the child abuse.
It’s not impeach Trump, it’s win elections.
It’s not just Roe, it’s overturning and blocking women’s health care.
It’s not bathroom bill unfairness, it’s the effect on the local economy.
The story that won’t go away:
AP:
Hunger, fear, desperation: What came of an ordinary ICE raid
Many miles away from the U.S.-Mexico border, authorities are separating families in raids that target immigrants at home and at work, conducted in the name of public safety. Most of these raids go unnoticed outside of the communities affected, but they are integral to the Trump administration’s broader crackdown on immigration that is leading to more arrests, particularly of migrants with no criminal records.
This is the story of one such operation, and the lingering effects it had not just on families but on the community they had come to call home.
Over two days in five towns across northern Kentucky, agents staked out homes before sunup, stopped men heading for jobs, went to warehouses like the one where Tomas had worked for more than a year. By ICE’s accounting, 20 men and two women were picked up.
Nor is it playing well politically:
Vox:
Trump pressed aides on Venezuela invasion, US official says
As a meeting last August in the Oval Office to discuss sanctions on Venezuela was concluding, President Donald Trump turned to his top aides and asked an unsettling question: With a fast unraveling Venezuela threatening regional security, why can’t the U.S. just simply invade the troubled country?
The suggestion stunned those present at the meeting, including U.S. Secretary of State Rex Tillerson and national security adviser H.R. McMaster, both of whom have since left the administration. This account of the previously undisclosed conversation comes from a senior administration official familiar with what was said.
In an exchange that lasted around five minutes, McMaster and others took turns explaining to Trump how military action could backfire and risk losing hard-won support among Latin American governments to punish President Nicolas Maduro for taking Venezuela down the path of dictatorship, according to the official. The official spoke on the condition of anonymity because of the sensitive nature of the discussions.
Don’t lose sight of the incompetence.
Trump will do his best to keep women motivated.
The Hill:
The NRA looks to the Supreme Court for salvation
But the NRA’s fixation with the Supreme Court is about more than seeking a return on their investment. Put simply, the gun lobby is desperate for a big win. Almost five months have passed since 17 teenagers and their teachers and coaches were shot dead at Marjory Stoneman Douglas High School in Parkland, Florida. During that time, it’s become clear that NRA’s extreme agenda — which boils down to guns everywhere and for everyone, no questions asked — is a losing proposition among almost every audience.
They’ve lost the American public. For the first time in almost two decades, the NRA is viewed unfavorably by a majority of Americans. Conversely, 66 percent of voters support stronger gun laws, the highest level ever measured by Quinnipiac.
They’ve lost state lawmakers. Since Parkland, 16 states have passed meaningful gun safety legislation — and half of them are governed by Republicans. Consider Florida, a former NRA stronghold that was once known as the “Gunshine State.” After the Parkland shooting, state lawmakers in Tallahassee bucked the gun lobby and passed a comprehensive package of gun safety laws, including raising the age to buy firearms to 21 and imposing a three-day waiting period to buy long guns.
They’ve lost corporate support. Companies like Bank of Omaha, Delta, and Hertz have cut ties with the NRA because they don’t want to be tarnished by such a toxic brand. At the same time, Dick’s Sporting Goods, Citigroup and others are leading the charge to create a more responsible gun marketplace.
They’ve lost voters. Starting last November — three months before Parkland — the NRA’s approved candidate came up short in a governor’s race in Virginia, a U.S. Senate race in Alabama, and a House race in a deeply conservative part of Pennsylvania.
Slate (P.S. they are true, and a reminder of how complicated people are):
The Profiles of Actual Voters This Bot Tweets Seem Too Good to Be True
On Wednesday, the bot posted a voter profile that was eerily timely, given it came just a few hours after news broke of Justice Anthony Kennedy’s retirement:
One of Trump’s campaign promises was to appoint Supreme Court justices who would overturn Roe v. Wade. As many pointed out in response to the tweet, this was a day when being pro-choice and a Trump voter were especially at odds with each other. The other apparent ideological contradictions evinced in the post caused many to respond in exasperated confusion, and even led some to suggest that the bot was fake.
The Guardian:
Interview
Madeleine Albright: ‘The things that are happening are genuinely, seriously bad
With the benefit of hindsight, she accepts that the west was slow to understand that Russians felt utterly humiliated after the cold war and ready to succumb to a nationalist strongman promising to make them great again. She recalls a Russian man complaining: “We used to be a superpower and now we’re Bangladesh with missiles.” Putin, she tells me, “has seen himself as the redeemer of that man”.
I wonder whether her first-hand encounters with despots had led her to identify any common personality traits. She laughs: “I’ll tell you – you’ll be surprised when you hear this – they seemed different when I met them.” She cites the example of Viktor Orbán, the self-styled “illiberal democrat” who rules Hungary. She first came to know him in the 1980s during Hungary’s struggle for liberation from communist dictatorship. “He was everybody’s favourite dissident. He was funded by George Soros to go to Oxford. He’s the one who started Fidesz, the youth party. The age limit for the youth party changed as he got older,” she adds with her hallmark waspishness. Orbán’s transformation in office has taken her by surprise. “I didn’t, I don’t think any of us saw this coming.”
WaPo:
White House official’s wife tweeted about n-word, anti-vaccine conspiracies from now-deleted account, report says
The wife of Bill Shine, the new White House deputy chief of staff for communications, has come under scrutiny for racially charged remarks and unfounded medical theories posted to her Twitter account, according to a report by the website Mediaite.
Darla Shine, a former television producer and the author of a book about the joys of being a stay-at-home mom called “Happy Housewives,” reportedly made statements questioning why white people would be labeled racist for using the n-word while black people would not, defending the Confederate battle flag and highlighting instances of black-on-white crime.
Shine’s Twitter account has since been deleted. The White House did not immediately respond to a request for comment.
Joanne Kenen/Politico:
The one big winner of the Obamacare wars
The Affordable Care Act was a bonanza for health consultants. So is Trump’s attempt to take it down.
Today, despite the GOP’s attacks on the ACA—and sometimes because of those attacks—the consultant universe is still flourishing. IBISWorld, a market research firm, says the sector has been growing by more than 7 percent a year, and predictshealthy growth in the years to come. Well-known consultant Paul Keckley came up with an estimate of $20 billion a year just for “health care management” consulting. And those estimates are only rough indicators; there’s no standard definition of who is a “consultant”; industry surveys don’t include the vast array of nonprofits, advocacy groups and government agencies that pump out all sorts of reports and advice of their own.
“We’re tripping over each other,” said Ian Morrison, a consultant and “futurist” who is a popular fixture on the health care lecture circuit.
And since it would be irresponsible not to speculate:
Jonathan Chait/NewYork:
Will Trump Be Meeting With His Counterpart — Or His Handler?
A plausible theory of mind-boggling collusion.
The unfolding of the Russia scandal has been like walking into a dark cavern. Every step reveals that the cave runs deeper than we thought, and after each one, as we wonder how far it goes, our imaginations are circumscribed by the steps we have already taken. The cavern might go just a little farther, we presume, but probably not much farther. And since trying to discern the size and shape of the scandal is an exercise in uncertainty, we focus our attention on the most likely outcome, which is that the story goes a little deeper than what we have already discovered. Say, that Donald Trump Jr., Jared Kushner, and Paul Manafort told their candidate about the meeting they held at Trump Tower with a Russian lawyer after they were promised dirt on Hillary Clinton; and that Trump and Kushner have some shady Russian investments; and that some of Trump’s advisers made some promises about lifting sanctions.
But what if that’s wrong? What if we’re still standing closer to the mouth of the cave than the end?