High turnout has been one of the defining features in a series of red-hued special election flips previously thought unreachable for Democrats. Connor Lamb's success in flipping PA-18 blue earlier this year proved that higher turnouts in special elections wasn't favoring Republicans like it usually does. As 538 wrote in March:
Pennsylvania 18 was yet another example of a Democratic turnout advantage — the telltale sign of an enthusiasm gap — helping the party do better than expected in special elections. The number of votes Lamb received was 80 percent of the number of votes Clinton received in this district in 2016 — but Saccone got just 53 percent of the number of votes Trump got. [...] Turnout on Tuesday was even higher than it was in the last midterm.
High turnout among Democratic voters/leaners has also been the key to forty-plus flips for Democrats in state legislative races. Turnout is everything heading into the midterms, which is why maintaining that enthusiasm is more important than anything as Democrats face a legacy vote that will define the Supreme Court for a generation.
All eyes have been on a handful of red-state Democratic senators—particulary, Joe Donnelly of Indiana , Heidi Heitkamp of North Dakota, and Joe Manchin of West Virginia—and a few so-called moderate Republicans who don’t want to be saddled with casting a vote that guts access to safe and legal abortions nationwide while stripping millions of Americans of healthcare coverage.
Pressuring those Republicans, and peeling off at least one of them, is the only thing that can prevent cementing a conservative majority on the high court that's far to the right of mainstream America on abortion rights, heathcare law, and more. And mounting formidable Democratic opposition to Donald Trump's nominee is crucial to both blocking the confirmation and boosting Democrats’ electoral chances this fall.
None of that will be possible if the first thing red-state Democrats do following Trump's announcement is voice their support for the nominee or signal their eagerness to placate Trump in any way. At that point, pressuring Republicans will be a useless empty threat because we can't possibly expect any GOP senator to side with Democrats when some in the Democratic ranks are already abandoning the effort.
It's the fight that matters most for now. Red-state Democrats will ultimately face a choice but waving the white flag before the battle even begins could have devastating electoral consequences.
“It is very important that we send a signal out of the gate that this is a winnable fight,” said Brian Fallon, the head of a new Democratic judicial advocacy group called Demand Justice. “By throwing in the towel before there was an opportunity to really pressure the pro-choice Republicans, you would have a sense of deflation among progressives that is the last thing you should want going into the midterms.”
It's not an easy fight, but it is winnable. Peeling off one vote is not out of the realm of reasonability by any means. And Democratic voters need to see an effort from Democratic lawmakers that reflects the fervor they have been showing at the polls. Time to step up.