On Tuesday, Secretary of State Brian Kemp defeated Lt. Gov. Casey Cagle in the GOP primary runoff for governor of Georgia in a 69-31 landslide. In November, Kemp will face former state House Minority Leader Stacey Abrams, who decisively won the Democratic nomination in May, in what is shaping up to be a hotly contested election.
Cagle, who had spent much of the race as the frontrunner, had led Kemp 39-26 the May primary and should have favorite in the runoff. But things quickly went wrong for him after one of his former opponents released damaging audio from a conversation with Cagle he'd secretly taped. The recordings made Cagle look like the worst sort of venal, calculating politician, and as his campaign struggled to respond, Kemp picked up Donald Trump's support in a surprise. In today’s cult-of-personality GOP, that was enough to seal Cagle’s doom.
Democrats had been watching the Republican firefight with glee, but they haven't held the governor's mansion since Roy Barnes lost re-election in 2002. However, Team Blue hopes that Abrams will break their losing streak. Abrams, who would be the first black woman to serve as governor of any U.S. state, is a strong fundraiser, and she's counting on turning out black voters (especially black women), young people, and other voters of color who traditionally have made up a smaller share of midterm electorates compared to presidential elections.
Kemp also gives Abrams an opponent who could not only inspire Democrats to head to the voting booths but also cost Team Red moderate voters. While Cagle was a fairly bland establishment figure (albeit one close to the NRA), Kemp has run Trumpesque-ads pitching himself as a "politically incorrect conservative." In one particularly infamous spot, Kemp declared, "I got a big truck, just in case I need to round up criminal illegals and take 'em home myself." However, the Republican nominee still has a bit more room for error than Abrams in a state that backed Trump 50-45, and Daily Kos Elections rates the general as Lean Republican.
Georgia also has an unusual law that could complicate the race. If no one takes a majority of the vote on Nov. 6, the top-two candidates will face off in a Dec. 10 runoff, and with Libertarian Ted Metz and independent Larry Odom on the ballot, there's a real chance this could happen. (Confusingly, any runoff for federal races wouldn't be until January.) It’s hard to say how a December runoff might impact turnout, which adds some extra unpredictability to this contest.
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