Disclaimer
I wrote this over a week ago, and then changed my mind about what I was going to post for last week’s diary. I haven’t had time to confirm the latest polling news about these races; but based on this week’s primary and special election results, I’m feeling better about the mood of the electorate. I still have concerns about manipulation by the Russians, but that’s even less in my control, so I’ll have to worry about that later.
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I think a lot of us are feeling somewhat comfortable with our chances in the House races this November, but I for one am concerned with what’s happening with the Senate races.
Cook Political Report has 5 seats, currently held by Democrats, listed as toss-ups; meaning they could go either way. They also list 3 seats, currently held by Republicans, as toss-ups.
A quick look at the 5 seats held by Democrats...
Bill Nelson, Florida — His opponent is Governor Rick Scott. How anyone can support Gov. Scott is beyond me. He was at the helm as company President and CEO of a health care insurance company, while it was defrauding Medicare. The company ultimately settled with the US Government with record breaking settlements. Apparently voters in Florida are quite comfortable with their governor, because he has a very slim lead in the race as of the Real Clear Politics polling average from 5/25-7/21. www.realclearpolitics.com/… In positive news for Sen. Nelson, Carmen Yulin Cruz, the Mayor of San Juan, Puerto Rico has endorsed him. Now to get the Puerto Ricans who have recently arrived in Florida, post-hurricane Maria, to register to vote by early October.
Joe Donnelly, Indiana — Currently serving in his first term, his opponent is Mike Braun. The most recent polling from Real Clear Politics is from May and shows Braun with a small lead, and within the margin of error. It appears that Donnelly may have won his first Senate race because of awful comments made by his opponent at the time and was the only Democrat elected in a state wide race. It’s really no surprise that Republicans have targeted this seat.
Claire McCaskill, Missouri — Sen. McCaskill’s opponent is Josh Hawley. No surprise this race is in the toss-up category as Sen. McCaskill has a slim lead in the RCP polling average. Mr. Hawley is currently Missouri’s Attorney General. From what I can tell he has signed onto a republican backed lawsuit to the ACA. I’d like to think that doesn’t bode well for him since Americans have grown to appreciate the protections the law offers. We’ve seen races around the country where Democrats have been successful touting the need to keep the ACA intact. Last week the St. Louis Post-Dispatch editorial board encouraged him to drop out of the lawsuit. www.stltoday.com/…
Heidi Heitkamp, North Dakota — Another race with old polling data, and a very slim lead by her Republican opponent, the state’s lone Representative Kevin Cramer.
Joe Manchin, West Virginia — RCP polling average from 5/10-7/16 shows Sen. Manchin with a 7 point lead. His race looks good enough that RCP categorizes it as Lean Dem. His opponent, Patrick Morrisey is the state’s Attorney General. What may have hurt his polling numbers is that he has signed on to the same lawsuit that Josh Hawley signed onto, with a total of 18 Republican AGs and 2 Republican Governors. You can read more about the race, here: www.realclearpolitics.com/...
It seems like McCaskill, and Manchin may be able to hold onto their seats, especially if their campaigns focus on healthcare.
Now let’s take a look at the Republican held seats...
Open Seat (Sen. Flake), Arizona — According to 538.com, Democratic Rep. Krysten Smyrna is currently leading all the Republican primary candidates by a decent margin. They expect the race will tighten especially after the primary. The site also cautions that it’s good news for Smyrna, but that Democrats shouldn’t be too complacent with this seat. fivethirtyeight.com/...
Dean Heller, Nevada — The polling average on Real Clear Politics, shows Democrat, Jacky Rosen trailing incumbent, Heller by .6 points. For what it’s worth, Ms. Rosen has raised $3 million more than her opponent since she announced her campaign a year ago. That seems like a positive sign, especially considering that one of the three polls showed her with a 4pt lead.
Open seat, (Sen. Corker), Tennessee — Republican Representative Marsha Blackburn is running against former Governor, Phil Bredesen in this seat being vacated by Sen. Corker. The most recent polling in this race shows Bredesen with a 6pt lead. Bredesen was a very popular two term Governor, so not surprising that he’s doing well at this point in the race. He’s a Democrat in a running in a red state, so keep that in mind while reading about the race. Bloomberg has an interesting article about this race, that is well worth reading: www.bloomberg.com/...
Doing a little bit of reading in preparation for this diary left me feeling slightly better because of the possible pick-up of a Republican held seat, or two. That gives us a little bit of wiggle room with the possible loss of a seat or two that are currently held by Democrats.
The bottom line for these races, the House races, along with state and local races is turnout. We have to be able to overcome gerrymandering, Russian hacking and propaganda.
Good news worth sharing...