Neary everything beyond the 538 projection will lean left.
As was discussed yesterday, Nate Silver/538 putout their first House projections, which give Dems a median of 230 seats, an average gain of 35 seats and a 75% chance of winning the House. After some fairly careful analysis of what his data concludes and what it doesn’t, I have come to the conclusion that his estimates are a substantial undercount for Dems. Namely, I have identified roughly 24 factors that aren’t in the Silver data, that all have an excellent chance of leaning left between now and the election, with no counterweight for the Rethugs.
Here is Nate’s analysis:
https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2018-midterm-election-forecast/house/
In terms of swinging further left, there are simply a number of future factors that Silver et al, by the nature of their analysis, can’t incorporate into their projections, because they aren’t in the data yet, or because this year will be different from historical patterns. . Let’s look at a bunch (but by no means all) of these:
1. The likelihood of a strong public outcome in one or more of the myriad legal cases, from Mueller to Manafort to Cohen, possibly including Cohen/Trump/Avenatti. Silver doesn’t adjust for future legal issues with political implications, nor should he, but the advantage is strongly Dem.
2. Recordings, from Omarosa to Cohen to whatever, and/or one of these people taking a deal and turning state's evidence with tapes. Not just Russian meddling, but criminality, including Russian Mafia and all of the stuff Manifort/Gates were involved in.
3. Russia. I am confident that here are numerous ways for this to haunt Trump/Rethugs between now and election day. Trump getting into fights with senior intelligence people, Mueller, tapes, more people turning state’s evidence, etc. Pretty likely that Mueller opens up SOMETHING juicy between now and the election, that at least maginally affects non-base Republicans and independents. .
4.Trump continuing to get more batshit crazy, in part because of 1-3. This becomes especially important if a batshit crazy Trump is out campaigning, or passes batsiht crazy new edicts. It also can depress Rethug turnout. The Brennan stuff and whatever comes next is gearing up some important people to take on Trump, I think. 5.
5. More serious negative legal news regarding more Rethugs; which hits Rethugs harder than Dems.
6. A global crisis that we cannot currently envision that Trumpf handles badly—there are black swans out there, and Trump WILL handle them badly. Maybe even a very bad hurricane, and other things that can be tied to global warming. Also, geopolitical crises that are likely to spring up.
7. Weakening of the stock market and/or a weaker set of economic numbers for the third quarter--both of which seem likely;
8. Some really ugly stories and pictures on the Child Kidnapping front. These are coming.
9. Some really awful lies coming out of the White House;
10. Really ugly anti-Rethug outcomes from candidate debates, and related demonstrations. I cannot conceive as to how typical Rethug candidates handle debates effectively while supporting Trumpf on a local basis. None of this is in the polling data at this point.
11) Ongoing Dem support from the local press that is turning hard against Trumpian claims of the press as the enemy;
12) Ironically, if Kavanaugh gets in by October, Rethug turnout goes down, and Dem turnout goes up;
13) Grassroots and op research activities that are much more likely to lean left than right. This includes better grass roots fundraising than in the past. It also includes more effective ads, including ads that incorporate conservatives who are abandoning Trump and the Rethugs. And some endorsements from this group.
14) Turnout patterns this year that are just different from the past, and lean more to the left than usual. I believe strongly in this likelihood—from yesterday:
In Minnesota, total primary turnout at more than 875,000 surpassed a 20-year high, with Democrat votes outnumbering Republican ballots by more than 250,000, according to unofficial state figures.
Wisconsin saw a similarly high level of voter turnout at around 950,000 ballots cast – numbers not seen since 2002 - with Democrats again outvoting Republicans by more than 80,000.
Polls still show Millenials voting at very low percentages. I think that tips up more as Election Day approaches.
15) Tariff messes that continue to get worse. Donnelly’s huge poll advantage right now is partly from this, I think. (+11)
16) More high-level resignations out of the White House, with associated vicious criticisms, both ways.
17) Additional evidence of global warming that hits home with at least some Trump supporters and independents, such as more red tide in Florida and more fires in the west.
18) More scandals and stupidity among his swamp dwellers such as Zinke and De Vos.
19) More opportunities to show how incompetent, anti-middle class and dishonest the Administration is on environmental issues. Zinke said in a radio interview with Breitbart News that environmental extremists were preventing the government from properly managing forests―leaving excessive fuel on the ground for the deadly blazes. The statement is just the latest as the Trump administration moves aggressively to open more public land to natural resource extraction, including logging.
20) Health care, health care, health care. This issue and Trumpf attempts to damage the ACA are going to continue to play a central role right up to the election, including rage at town halls, debates and demonstrations. On Rethug healthcare led by Trump, stupidity is a pre-existing condition.
21) Attacks from the senior military and intelligence community, such as the current one from Retired Adm. William McRaven, in response to Trump nuttiness.
22) The MSM continuing to move away from both siderism, which some of them have started to do, and more conservative commentators abandoning rump and the Rethugs. And more opportunities to weaponize the members of the right who have already abandoned Trumpf and the Rethugs and will be perfectly happy to help in the upcoming campaign with ads and op-eds.
23) More fundraising support from the tech community, which I believe is likely but not certain.
24) Voters who would vote for Trump, but want a Congressional counterweight. We will get some of that, and I don’t think it shows well in the polls.
Near as I can tell, virtually none of these 24—maybe one or two, including part of healthcare—are decently incorporated into the 538 data as yet, as good as their analysis is for this time in the cycle. Also note that the 538 estimates on Dem House favorability just jumped two points Wednesday, from 5.8% to 7.8%, after a temporary depression. I doubt that this new bounce back is in their analysis. The past week’s awful Rethug stuff such as Omarosa and Brennan is just beginning to hit the polls. Also, it’s hard to find scenarios that will lean to the right versus the 538 baseline. There just aren’t any important ones. Would a terrorist attack, for example, help Trump and the Rethugs? Doubtful. Will the strong economy? Only if it beats Q2, which is highly unlikely.
Putting all of this together and I think the Dem House advantage will end up over 10%, and beat Silvers’ median numbers significantly. Silver et al won’t include this stuff in projections until it shows up in polling data. I hope it does fairly soon, because I want to scare a few Rethug Senators on Kavanaugh. But maybe not soon enough for that. We’ll have to see. Donnelly’s poll gap is a big deal in that regard, imo.
Comments, additions to my list and counter-arguments welcome.