Race Ratings
• MN-Gov (Tossup to Lean D): Democrats wound up nominating their strongest candidate last week when they chose Rep. Tim Walz, while Republicans … did not. Though Hennepin County Commissioner Jeff Johnson lacks former Gov. Tim Pawlenty's lobbyist baggage, he's a pitiful fundraiser, and he upset his much better-known rival by proving he was the Trumpiest candidate. That's not a message that will resonate with a broader electorate.
But really, it's the turnout that tells the tale. Both parties held competitive primaries, but an astonishing 65 percent of all votes were cast for Democrats. Even a stronger candidate than Johnson would be in trouble; it wouldn't be a surprise if he wound up getting triaged. Democrats shouldn't get cocky, but Walz has the advantage now.
• SD-Gov (Safe R to Likely R): Democrats haven't won South Dakota's governorship since 1974, but they have an unusual candidate this year in state House Senate Leader Billie Sutton, a former professional rodeo rider who was paralyzed from the waist down in an accident a decade ago. Sutton has experience winning in a very red district, and he's raised credible sums. He also released a poll several weeks ago finding GOP Rep. Kristi Noem with just a 46-42 lead for this open seat. The response from the Noem campaign was telling: "It's funny that Democrats are excited about a poll that shows their candidate losing," sniffed her campaign manager.
Even if Sutton's poll is spot-on, it's still a very long way from 42 percent to victory for a Democrat running statewide in South Dakota. But it's 2018, and Republicans aren't behaving as though they have a mortal lock on this race.
• NJ-03 (Lean Republican to Tossup): While New Jersey's 3rd District has historically been tough for Democrats, the two polls we've seen since the primary—one for a progressive group, and one more recently from Monmouth—have shown a dead heat between Republican Rep. Tom MacArthur and Democrat Andy Kim. MacArthur is personally wealthy and can spend limitless sums to save his career, but he's also uniquely flawed as the author of the key GOP amendment to repeal Obamacare. Kim, meanwhile, reached rare air last quarter, raising over $1 million, so he'll have what he needs to compete. This race is a serious one.
• NY-24 (Likely Republican to Lean Republican): It's been a few weeks and, in a pattern that's now quite familiar, Republicans have failed to respond to an internal poll for a progressive group that had Democrat Dana Balter leading GOP Rep. John Katko by a 47-43 margin. Since then, Balter, who launched her campaign as a political outsider, has been embraced by both EMILY's List and the DCCC. Katko has always looked like a strong incumbent and still is, but he'll have to defy both his district, which voted for Hillary Clinton in 2016, and an emerging blue wave.