Hurricane Florence will likely strike the United States,somewhere in the vicinity of Wilmington, NC, on Thursday evening, as a major hurricane. Meanwhile Tropical Storm Olivia will pass through the Hawaiian Islands tomorrow as a tropical storm, dumping extremely heavy rain on islands soaked by Hurricane Lane last month.
FLORENCE
Florence remains an extremely dangerous hurricane.
Hurricane Florence Intermediate Advisory Number 48A
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL062018
800 AM AST Tue Sep 11 2018
...RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT FINDS FLORENCE HAS WEAKENED SLIGHTLY...
...RESTRENGTHENING EXPECTED TO BEGIN LATER TODAY...
SUMMARY OF 800 AM AST...1200 UTC...INFORMATION
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LOCATION...26.4N 64.6W
ABOUT 405 MI...655 KM S OF BERMUDA
ABOUT 950 MI...1530 KM ESE OF CAPE FEAR NORTH CAROLINA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...130 MPH...215 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 290 DEGREES AT 15 MPH...24 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...950 MB...28.05 INCHES
The hurricane has undergone an eyewall replacement cycle—this is when the powerful thunderstorms immediately around the eye collapse and reform. Hurricanes generally weaken during this cycle, which takes 12 to 24 hours to complete. We don’t really know when they’ll happen, just that they do. It sometimes is random and at the moment, beyond the capability of our forecasting tools to forecast.
Florence will likely re-organize when the cycle completes this morning. Because conditions in the ocean (sea surface temperatures) and in the atmosphere around the storm are favorable, it is very likely Florence will make a run at Category 5 status, and will be perhaps more powerful than Hurricane Hazel (1954) and Hurricane Hugo (1989) on its approach to the Carolinas on Thursday. Both of these storms were Category 4 storms when they made landfall in the Carolinas, Hazel the more powerful of the two.
Of even more concern is that Florence will slow down beginning Thursday as it approaches land, somewhere in the vicinity of Wilmington, NC, and may very well get stuck for several days. This will lead to an inland flood event of truly epic proportions, the extent of which won’t be known until we know how far west inland Florence will track.
Hurricane watches are up for the coasts of North and South Carolina, and inland hurricane watches are also up for points inland. It’s likely watches will be extended into Virginia. Points north along the coast will also have to deal with persistent coastal flooding, as they have for the last several days and we don’t yet know if Florence’s rains will spread inland across Pennsylvania and New York.
Big threat here. Please pay attention and heed all warnings and instructions.
OLIVIA
Tropical Storm Olivia is moving towards Hawaii.
Tropical Storm Olivia Intermediate Advisory Number 43A
NWS Central Pacific Hurricane Center Honolulu HI EP172018
200 AM HST Tue Sep 11 2018
...OLIVIA CONTINUES MOVING TOWARD HAWAII...
SUMMARY OF 200 AM HST...1200 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...21.9N 150.7W
ABOUT 320 MI...515 KM ENE OF HILO HAWAII
ABOUT 470 MI...755 KM E OF HONOLULU HAWAII
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...65 MPH...100 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 270 DEGREES AT 10 MPH...17 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...999 MB...29.50 INCHES
Olivia continues to weaken, however Hurricane Lane dumped a great deal of rain on the islands as it passed a couple weeks ago. Olivia threatens to do the same, and officials want the residents of Hawaii to be alert.
KEY MESSAGES:
1. Resist the temptation to make comparisons between Lane and
Olivia. Although Lane was a stronger tropical cyclone near the
islands, it did not bring direct core impacts to the state. In some
areas, Olivia could bring significantly worse impacts than those
brought by Lane. Those impacts could include intense flooding
rainfall, damaging winds, and large and dangerous surf.
2. It is important to not focus on the exact forecast track
and intensity when planning for Olivia. Regardless of the track
that Olivia takes as it approaches the islands, significant impacts
can be expected away from the center. In particular, the
mountainous terrain of Hawaii can produce localized areas of
strongly enhanced wind gusts and rainfall.
Elsewhere there are 6 other tropical systems in the Pacific and Atlantic Oceans. Issac has weakened to a tropical storm but is very much worth watching when it enters the Caribbean. A disturbance in the Gulf of Mexico is worth watching, as it may eventually move over areas soaked by Florence, and Typhoon Mangkhut in the Western Pacific is exceptionally powerful, on course for Hong Kong by Sunday.
Please use the thread below to post emergency management information and news clips. I will update the diary as I can during the day.
Tuesday, Sep 11, 2018 · 3:00:37 PM +00:00
·
terrypinder
SUMMARY OF 1100 AM AST...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...26.7N 65.3W
ABOUT 390 MI...625 KM S OF BERMUDA
ABOUT 905 MI...1455 KM ESE OF CAPE FEAR NORTH CAROLINA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...130 MPH...215 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 295 DEGREES AT 16 MPH...26 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...950 MB...28.06 INCHES
still on course for North Carolina, the bigger change being that landfall may not occur until Friday morning, meaning a prolonged period of hurricane conditions along the coast, and increased risk for catastrophic rains inland.