Polls: We've reached the point in the election cycle where new polls of individual races are dropping regularly, so from here on out, we'll generally be rounding them up and offering comments on notable results. We start with four separate surveys of competitive House races:
- NC-02: SurveyUSA for Civitas: Linda Coleman (D): 44, George Holding (R-inc): 43, Jeff Matemu (L): 2
- NY-19: Monmouth: Antonio Delgado (D): 48, John Faso (R-inc): 45
- TX-23: Siena for the New York Times: Will Hurd (R-inc): 51, Gina Ortiz Jones (D): 43
- UT-04: Y2 Analytics for Mia Love: Mia Love (R-inc): 51, Ben McAdams (D): 42
Civitas is a conservative think-tank, so it's quite interesting that their poll matches a recent Coleman internal that had her up 45-44. SurveyUSA also finds Trump with a lousy 40-54 approval rating. That's considerably worse than his 53-44 margin of victory in this district, but if it's accurate, that's a major anvil around Holding's neck.
Monmouth's numbers differ from a Siena poll taken late last month that had Faso ahead 45-40. Interestingly, Trump sports a 48-47 approval score (very similar to the 45-47 rating Siena gave him), so it's hard to argue Monmouth's sample was too blue. (Trump carried this district 51-44.) Also note that while Monmouth offers three models that reflect different turnout scenarios, we’re relying on their “historical midterm turnout" model from this point forward. This appears to be the closest they offer to a likely voter model, and we’re close enough to Election Day that it makes sense to look at what likely voters, rather than just registered voters, have to say.
The Siena/New York Times poll of Texas' 23rd is our first of the race. Republican operatives have insisted for months that Hurd is in better shape than some other Texas GOP incumbents in historically redder districts (particularly Pete Sessions and John Culberson), and this poll would seem to back up that claim. However, very unusually, Trump's approvals stand at 48-47. That would represent an improvement compared to his 2016 vote share (Hillary Clinton actually won this district 50-46), which is something we've almost never seen this cycle.
Finally, Utah's 4th is the rare district that has seen a cornucopia of polls—probably more than any other House race, for whatever reason—but almost every survey to date has show a low-to-mid-single digits edge for Love. While Y2 says it released its entire poll, it does not appear to have asked about Trump's standing.