The National Hurricane Center’s 2 a.m. forecast shows a potential — big word here is potential — for Florence to stall out either onshore or just offshore in North Carolina and then slowly drift south before making landfall in Charleston or maybe as far south as Savannah.
I feel the need to say again — potential. The cone of uncertainty — in that white dotted area — is big. They still don’t know where this thing is going to go. It’s remained steady today at 140 mph and moving at a fast 17 mph WNW.
European models started showing the potential shift to the south Tuesday afternoon and evening. By the 11 p.m. newscasts, stations in SC and Savannah started mentioning the possibility of the storm doing more than previously expected to the southern coast of SC or into Georgia.
If you’re in NC or the Myrtle Beach area and evacuated, don’t turn around and head home. You still might get the eye. No, right now the data shows you’ll likely still get the eye. And it may stall on top of you for a couple of days and make things even worse than you expected, with more hours of horrible winds and even more rain than you were told to expect.
If you’re in Charleston and decided not to evacuate, watch closely on Wednesday. Get a tank of gas if you can still find it. Think about where you could go. Watch the SC Highway Department for updates about how traffic is moving on I-95 and I-26. It looks good right now, but it’s 2 a.m. and when people wake up and see the possible shift in the forecast, a lot of people might get on the road.
If you’re in Beaufort or Hilton Head and stayed after the governor lifted the evacuation order on Tuesday, think again. I wouldn’t be surprised if he reissued that order on Wednesday. Get a tank of gas if you can. Watch highway conditions. Think about where you could go.
If you’re in Savannah or south of Savannah and didn’t think you needed to pay attention to Florence, start paying attention. See advice above.
I know what you all in these areas are thinking — you want someone to tell you where it’s going and how strong it will be when it gets there. No one can tell you that for sure right now. Accept the fact that you’ll likely have to make a decision about whether to evacuate without knowing for sure if you need to. That’s just the way hurricanes work.
Yes, it’s a hassle. It can be a miserable, expensive trip and all for nothing. But it might not be. It might save you from being terrified for hours and maybe risking your life and the lives of your family.
Here’s part of Weather Underground’s 2 a.m. update:
Recent forecast guidance has suggested Florence may turn a bit more westward and slow down considerably as it nears the Carolina coast.
That dome of high pressure aloft is expected to weaken, which may allow Florence to stall and meander near the coast or just inland of the coast.
Peak coastal impacts from Florence are expected late Thursday and into Friday, potentially into the weekend if a stall occurs near the coast.
Impacts from Florence, particularly heavy rain, may continue into this weekend or early next week if it stalls out or moves erratically for a time, as suggested by some forecast guidance.
The Carolinas are at greatest risk for major impacts from Florence. Locations farther south, such as Georgia, and farther north into the mid-Atlantic should also monitor Florence for any forecast changes.
Meander. They really used that word in a weather forecast about a hurricane. It may meander for a while as it makes up its mind where it wants to go.
WSAV in Savannah says:
The official National Hurricane Center forecast shows Florence remaining a major hurricane until landfall early Friday morning. A general west/northwest to northwest track is expected through Friday... then large uncertainty arrives for the weekend. The storm could continue very slowly in a generally westerly fashion... or as most of the recent guidance suggests... back more southwest or south.
Large Uncertainty. Please, be aware. Hurricane force winds extend across an area 120 miles wide. The area of tropical storm force winds make the storm bigger than the entire state of South Carolina. Rainfall at or near the eye will be up to 35 inches.
The potential rainfall map gets uglier every time it’s updated. Here’s the latest, with rain extending into Kentucky, Ohio, Pennsylvania, New York …
So, again … large uncertain, a potentially meandering storm, a wide cone of uncertainty. Please keep yourself and your family safe.
The next update from the National Hurricane Center will be at 5 a.m. Eastern.