www.cookpolitical.com/…
Cook Political Report changed ratings on three Democratic Held Districts rating the two in New Hampshire as more likely to remain with team blue. Cook believes the winners of yesterday’s Granit State primaries will be difficult for Republicans to defeat.
In contrast, Cook Reports shifted California CD-16 from solid Democrat to likely Democrat noting that Democratic turnout falls off sharply in midterm elections in this Central Valley farming district. Incumbent Jim Costa has not done better than 52% in previous midterms.
CA-16: Costa (D) - Solid D to Likely D
NH-01: OPEN (D) - Lean D to Likely D
NH-02: Kuster (D) - Likely D to Solid D
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NYT/Sienna Live Polls Continue
www.nytimes.com/…
The polling will continue with CO CD-6, WI CD-1, and ME CD-2 today.
Nate CohnVerified account @Nate_Cohn 15h15 hours ago
We've at least partly polled 10 districts so far. GOP 46, Dems 45, 7 toss-ups. 3 lean Republican, per Cook Political Report N=4713
This is actually a pretty good result since only one of the districts polled so far is held by a Democrat, MN CD-8. Though a number of Republican seats are tied, only one MN CD-3, is clearly going to flip, according to the poll.
From NYT/Sienna Live Poll
District Margin Trump App/Dis
CA CD-48R Tied 40/54
CO CD-6R D +9 (inc) 41/54
IL CD-6R R +1 36/57
IL CD-12R R +1 48/46
KY CD-6R R +1 45/51
ME CD-2R D +2 (inc) 47/45
MN CD-3R D +9 33/62
MN CD-8D D +1 47/48
VA CD-7R R +4 47/47
TX CD-23R R +10 48/47
WV CD-3R R +8 62/32
WI CD-1R R -4 (inc) 44/49
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Generic Poll Average Best Since January
projects.fivethirtyeight.com/...
The Quinnipiac, Morning Consult, and Marist Poll each agree that Democrats have a 12 point advantage in the generic congressional race, as adjusted by 538.
Ipsos Poll is at +10 for Democrats and YouGov is at +5, as adjusted for partisan lean.
This puts the 538 average at a 9.4 advantage for Democrats, the best its been since January.