Even though there’s still plenty of historical ground to cover, the odds of a Trump resignation have improved, as have the odds of impeachment.
Impeachment odds were even a year ago, But “Odds on whether President Trump will be impeached hit a record low of 2 to 1 following his meeting with Russian President Vladimir Putin in Helsinki...Before his joint press conference with Putin, odds that Trump would get impeached were 4 to 1; afterward they fell to 2 to 1.” (NY Post).
Five Thiry Eight currently is forecasting at a 7/9 chance of a Democratic Congressional majority suggesting that the likelihood of Trump’s impeachment should skyrocket past 50%.
Impeachment odds over the past 90 days.
Since the op-ed was released two days ago, Trump’s impeachment odds have risen by around two points of likelihood on PredictIt.
PredictIt odds reflect a 6% likelihood of Trump being impeached by 2018, but a current 44% likelihood of Trump being impeached within his first term.
MyBookie reflects a slightly different story, predicting Trump to be at -500/+300 odds for making it through his first term.
heavy.com/...
Recently Trump has tried to shake down his base by saying that some economic sectors’ performance will be tied to electoral defeats for the GOP.
J.P. Gravitt, chief executive of research firm Market Realist, said there’s a twofold explanation for the market’s resiliency.
- For stocks to sell off on impeachment fears, investors would “have to suppose that Trump is responsible for everything good in the market to suppose that the opposite would be true, and second we would have to know with a capital K that he will be gone and when any changes would be made to reverse his policies,” he said.
- While investors are unlikely to panic, Gravitt said a more material threat could exert psychological pressure closer to midterm elections in November or if Special Counsel Robert Mueller “finds something more damaging.”
www.marketwatch.com/...
Will the House always win.
(2017) “We make it 6/4 that Trump will resign, so a chance of roughly 40%,” Paddy Power’s Head of Trump Betting Joe Lee initially said on Thursday. However, that was cut to evens, which means it's a 50/50 chance, by Friday as Trump's insane week continued. When he was inaugurated, the odds of Trump resigning before the end of his first term would have been 7/1, Price said. What a difference nine insane months makes.
Gambling site Bovada, meanwhile, has wagers on Trump's likelihood of resigning before his first term, before the end of this year, 2018, 2019, or into a second term. The biggest payout is for a Trump resignation by the end of 2017.
Bovada, however, hasn't seen an increase on bets of whether Trump will resign during his first term.
"With everything going on in the world we expected to see an increase in bets on whether Trump would resign during his first term, but that has not been the case," Bovada SportsBook Manager Kevin Bradley said in an email. He said 15 percent of all bets on the possibility were placed at the beginning of August. Those odds are falling everyday, meaning he's favored to resign.
According to Bradley, Bovada opened the prop bet in May with odds of +135 that Trump would resign. Since then, it fell to +130 in June, and is now at -110.
mashable.com/...