Senate, Gubernatorial: In partnership with Reuters and the University of Virginia's Center for Politics, Ipsos has done its first surveys of five Sun Belt states with Senate and governor's races. However, some caution is warranted because the polls were conducted entirely online and in English, even though each of these states has a substantial Spanish-speaking population and those who may be easier to reach on cell phones. Nevertheless, we're told the surveys did weight to past census estimates of turnout by race, and something like that is a must for states where voters skew much whiter than the total adult population thanks to low Hispanic eligibility and turnout rates. The results are below:
AZ-Sen: Kyrsten Sinema (D): 47, Martha McSally (R): 44
AZ-Gov: Doug Ducey (R-inc): 51, David Garcia (D): 39
CA-Sen: Dianne Feinstein (D-inc): 44, Kevin de Leon (D): 24
CA-Gov: Gavin Newsom (D): 52, John Cox (R): 40
FL-Sen: Rick Scott (R): 46, Bill Nelson (D-inc): 45
FL-Gov: Andrew Gillum (D): 50, Ron DeSantis (R): 44
NV-Sen: Dean Heller (R-inc): 46, Jacky Rosen (D): 43
NV-Gov: Adam Laxalt (R): 43, Steve Sisolak (D): 40
TX-Sen: Beto O'Rourke (D): 47, Ted Cruz (R-inc): 45
TX-Gov: Greg Abbott (R-inc): 50, Lupe Valdez (D): 41
Most notable among this release is that this is the first poll to ever find O'Rourke beating Cruz. While it could be the first to catch onto a trend, it's also just as possible that the results are out of line with where things stand in a state where Cruz has had an average lead in the mid-single-digits.
Even more unusually, O'Rourke is prevailing even though Rosen is narrowly trailing in Nevada, which is widely regarded as one of if not the best of Team Blue's pickup opportunities. Nevada polls in recent cycles that are only in English or have trouble reaching the state's highly transient population can sometimes understate Democratic support, and it's possible though far from guaranteed that is what’s happening here.