The pollsters just changed their screens from “registered voters” to “likely voters”. And Beto’s suddenly gone from running an “even race” to “up to double-digits behind.” I call BS. Any “likely voter” screens are worthless in this race. I’ve pulled comments across a few blogs into this post — to get it all in one place.
Beto’s race was always going to be an uphill fight. He knows that he needs to to change the electoral equation to be able to win — it’s part of his campaign strategy. It’s included in his “Plan to Win” (betofortexas.com/...). Things are different this time because:
- People are engaged. Trump’s win has pissed off and fired up a lot of people, as seen in every election since Nov 2016.
- The demographics are changing in TX. And, repeat after me, “Texas is not a Red State, it’s a non-voting state”. Trump only won with a turnout of only 60% of registered voters (46% of Voting Age Public [VAP]). In the last non-presidential election, Cornyn won with only 34% of registered voters (25% VAP) turning out. (www.sos.state.tx.us/...). The best way to win is by changing the electoral equation: registering new voters and getting sometimes-voters out to the polls.
- You’ve got a candidate that’s engaging the voters. He’s putting in the legwork — he’s visited all 254 counties in TX. Many multiple times — and it’s showing in the turnout he’s getting. He’s not taking any PAC money — so he’ll be working for all Texans instead of just the rich ones. And he’s running a positive campaign — talking about the things he wants to fix instead of only taking pot-shots at his opponent. And he’s engaging volunteers. I’ve never seen this many volunteers for a candidate since I’ve been in TX. Especially as many young ones.
Yes, there’s a lot of work still to be done to get the new- and sometimes-voters to the polls.
But it’s not impossible. In fact, we’ve seen it work before in TX. In 2004 Mark Strama ran for state congressman in a district that was considered solidly Republican. He knew that he would lose if they ran a traditional campaign. So instead they ran a campaign to “change the equation.” They blanketed the district — registering new voters and getting sometimes-voters out to the polls. Strama got his message out the voters, one voter at a time. It helped that his opponent wasn’t popular. Against the deep pockets of the R supporters, Strama won by 556 votes. The R’s sued, stating that the voter turnout was “mathematically impossible.” The case was laughed out of court — “we worked our asses out to turn out our voters” beat “we only expected our base to turn out and didn’t work that hard.”
Beto’s playing the same campaign game. He’s blanketed Texas, attracting volunteers. His campaign is enabling those volunteers to engage the voters needed to change the electoral equation. And they’re working their asses off.
Meanwhile, Cruz has nothing. He was elected in 2012 in effectively a special election. (The normal R primary was delayed due to gerrymandering lawsuits, which enabled a run-off. Yes, you can blame Tom Delay for Senator Rafael. The R primary run-off was in the summer, with only 8% registered voter turnout.) His lack of campaign experience is showing — like the fact that his campaign manager only recently figured out that yard signs might be a good thing to order. Cruz doesn’t have a record to run on. All he can do is to take random shots at Beto. BBQ, for gosh sakes? Easily put to rest with that video of Beto skateboarding in a Whataburger.
Still, Republicans are more used to voting in TX, especially in non-presidential elections. So yes, it’s going to be an uphill climb. But I’m seeing an army heading uphill with packs on. I don’t want to hear “he’ll never make it” or “it can’t be done.” It’s been done before, on a smaller scale. We’re witnessing the full-scale version now. Ignore the polls. They don’t mean anything in this race. Meanwhile, there’s still work to be done. Time to strap a pack on and join the crowd.
Beto’s website: https://betofortexas.com
Battleground TX (fighting to turn TX blue): https://www.battlegroundtexas.com
Voto Latino (engaging Latino voters nation-wide): http://votolatino.org