Race Ratings Changes:
CT-Gov (Tossup to Lean D): While outgoing Gov. Dan Malloy's extreme unpopularity had threatened to undermine the entire Democratic ticket in Connecticut this year, it appears that the national political environment is overshadowing the local mood. Democrat Ned Lamont has led in every survey, including a recent Quinnipiac poll that put him up 47-39 over Republican Bob Stefanowski. Thanks to his personal wealth, Lamont has a large financial advantage. The RGA has helped make up the gap, spending $2 million so far with another $1 million in ad time reserved, but Lamont is now favored.
FL-18 (Likely R to Lean R): Freshman GOP Rep. Brian Mast, an Army veteran who lost both legs in Afghanistan, is a tougher-than-usual opponent, but Democrats seem to sense an opportunity. The DCCC recently began advertising on behalf of former State Department official Lauren Baer, who trailed by just 3 points in two separate Democratic polls last month and raised $1.6 million in the third quarter.
This district moved in the GOP's direction in 2016, voting for Donald Trump 53-44 after going for Mitt Romney by a narrower 51-48 four years earlier, but Democrats held this seat for two terms prior to Mast's win, so there's at least a history of crossover voting in this area. A Baer victory would nonetheless be an upset, though, Mast still holds the edge.
MI-11 (Tossup to Lean D): The only poll we've seen for this suburban Detroit seat, which backed Trump 50-45, gave Democrat Haley Stevens a 45-38 lead over Republican Lena Epstein. What may be more ominous for Team Red, though, is how little outside spending there's been boosting Epstein. Both the NRCC and Congressional Leadership Fund have stayed away from this race, though the Trumpist super PAC America First Action has deployed $612,000 so far. However, that's still far less than the $2.5 million we've seen in support of Stevens. It's too early to write off Epstein, who has already self-funded millions, but her would-be allies aren't acting like she's in good shape here.
MT-AL (Likely R to Lean R): Republican Rep. Greg Gianforte should be able to take comfort from the fact that Montana backed Donald Trump by a wide 56-36 margin in 2016, but in last year's special election, he only beat a flawed opponent by a considerably narrower 50-44 spread. The state has also long been more open to supporting local Democrats below the presidential level, as evidenced by the fact that Sen. Jon Tester stands a good chance of winning re-election this year.
What's more, Gianforte's Democratic challenger Kathleen Williams raised a monster $2.1 million in the third quarter, so she'll have more than enough resources to get her message out in this relatively inexpensive state. Outside groups on both sides haven't gotten involved here, though Gianforte is personally wealthy and Williams can certainly hold her own. Gianforte is still favored to win a full term thanks to Montana's red lean, but an AARP survey last month conducted by a pair of pollsters (one Democratic, one Republican) found him up just 46-45, and no reliable outfits have released contradictory numbers.
NM-02 (Lean R to Tossup): At 50-40 Trump, New Mexico's open 2nd District leans decidedly to the right, but 2018's election is a reminder that candidate quality is still important. Democrats have a fantastic nominee in water-rights attorney Xochitl Torres Small, who has run a strong race against hard-right Republican Yvette Herrell. Recent polls points to a tight contest, including even Herrell's own internal polling from the Tarrance Group, which had her up just 49-45. With outside groups from both national parties recently jumping into the contest with significant ad buys, this race now looks highly competitive.