Polls: Today’s House polls:
In Arizona’s 1st, the DCCC has spent $1 million to protect O’Halleran, but neither the NRCC nor the Congressional Leadership Fund has stepped in to help Rogers. That’s one reason to disbelieve her polling. Another is the comically threadbare memo from Go Right Strategies (go ahead and click it), which embarrassingly refers to the Democrat as “Invisible Tom” when listing out its results. No serious pollster does that. Also, this poll, like their last, only sampled landlines.
In Florida’s 27th, Mason Dixon provides the first independent poll we’ve seen, which buttresses the widely reported notion that Shalala is not in the kind of shape she should be in a district that voted for Hillary Clinton 59-39. However, once again, the major GOP groups aren’t playing here, while on the Democratic side, the House Majority PAC has spent a relatively small $152,000. It’s also worth noting that this poll gives Trump a 43-46 approval rating, which seems very high for a seat he lost so badly.
In Iowa’s 1st, this survey (from Trump caretaker Kellyanne Conway’s old firm) is almost the definition of an “I’m not dead yet!” poll—the kind you release when yeah, you really are pretty much a goner. Not only did a Siena poll last month give Finkenauer a giant 52-37 lead, but Blum’s campaign has been triaged: Neither the NRCC nor the CLF has reserved time here, and the DCCC cancelled almost all of its spending for this district.
In New Jersey’s 3rd, MacArthur’s poll is the first to give him the lead after the last two public surveys put Kim ahead, the most recent being a Siena poll last month that had Kim up 49-39. Outside groups on both sides have spent oodles here: Republicans $3 million and Democrats $3.4 million.
In Nevada’s 4th, we haven’t seen any independent polling here at all. This is another district where both sides are spending heavily, with $2.3 million from the NRCC and $2.6 million from Democratic groups, including the DCCC and House Majority PAC. There will be plenty more to come.
Finally, in Utah’s 4th, this is the first-ever poll to show McAdams leading—and this race has been polled an unusually large number of times. The numbers come right on the heels of CLF making its first foray into the race, as well as the DCCC reserving ad time for the final week before Election Day.