With Updates in multiple states, the latest Ipsos polling is moderately encouraging for Dems.
The likely voter models show Sinema ahead 39/34, Beto leading 39/36, and Rosen leading 34/33. Indiana is tied, and they show us down 2 in Florida, 36/38. Wisconsin, Pennsylvania, Ohio and Michigan continue to look secure with significant Dem leads.
It’s just one poll, and should not be taken as more valid than others this week. But perhaps it can encourage us to tone down the doom and gloom messaging over the Senate. The data is a bit noisy right now, and it is not clear whether the GOP had real gains from Kavanaugh or whether that was a blip that won’t last.
These Senate races are going to come down to the wire. This feels a lot like 2014 to me, and I remember Dems looking somewhat okay in October...but those tidal forces of the prevailing political mood are just a really strong force, and we got mostly wiped out. Hopefully we will see a similar effect in 2018, with Republicans showing an okay poll now and then, but they almost all get wiped on Election Day.