It’s spreading in the aftermath of the recent, torture and untimely death of Advice and Consent in the U.S. Senate. Some stories are by someone with a deadline looking for a sound byte.
Vanity Fair
“The Kavanaugh debate has dropped a political grenade into the middle of an electorate that had been largely locked in Democrats’ favor for the past six months,” former Mitch McConnell aide Josh Holmes told Axios. “Private polling shows the enthusiasm shift is . . . unmistakable.”
Others are just trying to make a better horse race tale. This gem tries reading the tea leaves of the top lines of past elections.
CNBC
Heading into the final weeks of the campaign, the latest "generic" congressional polls show an average spread of more than seven points, according to Real Clear Politics. That's a solid lead. But it has faded in recent weeks. And it may not be wide enough to bring about the kind of "blue wave" Democrats are hoping for.
Some are friends of Democrats, worried about slackers on our side figuring the job is almost done and heading for the house before the barn gets raised. Until the job is done, though, the whole thing can still fall down.
CBS
"Blue wave" is far from certain
By all means, allow such ideas to goad you to do ever more of whatever you are doing to help Democrats. But, for those of you prone to melancholy about fading Democratic prospects next month, and I know you are out there, please consider some important truths.
- Gerrymandering has unintended consequences. Lots of Republican have little experience campaigning for General Election. For years, Democrats have done poor job of fielding serious candidates in presumptively safe GOP districts. As a results, many Republicans in Congress haven’t faced a serious opponent in November since their own first election, and sometimes not then. Campaigning is a skill. Some politicians are better at it than others. Like all skills, practice and experience hone and refine it. Our candidates are first timers, too, mostly, but that just means that the playing field is somewhat more level. Meanwhile, our candidates are younger and less male, running against a bunch of lazy old men, mostly.
- PAC and dark money have unintended consequences. Republicans become real junkies for this funding. It saps them of the will to build other sources of campaign money, like individual donations from well motivated donors. They become slaves to Greenroots messaging while losing touch with grassroots issues. Under the right conditions (see O’Rourke, Beto) the small overwhelms the big and the advantage shifts.
- Unresponsive and, worse, oppressive governance has unintended consequences. Republican governance has left vast swaths of Americans without many of the basic constituents of general welfare, suffering various nutritional, medical, educational, employment and social deficiencies that cannot be made up for with smart phones and wide screen TVs. Oppress people enough and insult them, to boot, and numbers of them will rise against you.
- American Democrats have nominated a slate, nationwide, that on average is the least white, least male, least religious in outlook and most progressive in national history. In 1918 this slate would have sunk us. Same in 1968. But now, it’s going to sink them.
So, quit worrying, keep working and GOTV.