www.centerforpolitics.org/…
Larry Sabato’s ratings for US House races have been updated with mostly good news. Two tossup races have been moved to lean Democrat and four lean Democratic races are moved into the likely Democratic. SC CD-1 has gone from likely Republican to lean Republican.
Four other races have slipped from tossup to lean Republican, not yet totally out of reach. These changes seem to be mostly due to recent polling showing the Democratic candidate down five or more points and the desire by Sabato to reduce the number of tossups by assigning as many races as possible now that the election approaches.
Larry Sabato’s Crystal Ball House ratings changes
Member/District |
Old Rating |
New Rating |
AZ-2 Open (McSally, R) |
Leans Democratic |
Likely Democratic |
Mimi Walters (R, CA-45) |
Toss-up |
Leans Democratic |
Peter Roskam (R, IL-6) |
Toss-up |
Leans Democratic |
MN-8 Open (Nolan, D) |
Toss-up |
Leans Republican |
NH-1 Open (Shea-Porter, D) |
Leans Democratic |
Likely Democratic |
Steve Chabot (R, OH-1) |
Toss-up |
Leans Republican |
Matt Cartwright (D, PA-8) |
Leans Democratic |
Likely Democratic |
Rothfus (R) vs. Lamb (D) (PA-17) |
Leans Democratic |
Likely Democratic |
SC-1 Open (Sanford, R) |
Likely Republican |
Leans Republican |
Will Hurd (R, TX-23) |
Toss-up |
Leans Republican |
WV-3 Open (Jenkins, R) |
Toss-up |
Leans Republican |
A race-by-race analysis of Democratic House targets shows the party is close to winning the majority, but they do not have it put away, in our judgment, with Election Day less than three weeks away.
projects.fivethirtyeight.com/...
Website 538 give Democrats a 8.4% advantage in the generic congressional poll (49.7% to 41.3%). They rate Democrats at an 84% chance of having political control of the US House next Congress.