Ugh. I really hated reading this article from yesterday's New York Times (Meet the Republican's Best Hope for Flipping a House Seat). Yet as a resident of Duluth, the purported Democratic stronghold in the district, I can't say that any of the observations and anecdotes in the article ring false. Democrat Joe Radinovich is indeed facing a candidate from “central casting” in Republican Pete Stauber whose appeal is rooted in a pedigree of hockey, a career in the police, religiosity and the deep history of the Stauber name in the Duluth community (e.g., the Stauber Brothers' Pro Shop, a 27-year hockey-gear retailer renamed the “Duluth Hockey Company” in 2015). In a district that swung horrifyingly for Trump in 2016, having both Trump and Pence campaign here this year has been to Stauber's benefit, particularly when he has been only weakly challenged by the media or in debates to defend the policies of the Trump Administration. Indeed, Stauber's media campaign has focused on the emotional appeal of his and his family's backstory, distanced from the decidely nasty anti-Radinovich ads run by outside conservative groups.
The NYT article notes anecdotally the likelihood of split-ticket Stauber / Klobuchar voters:
The district’s shifting alliances were clear; many parade-goers sported both Stauber stickers and Klobuchar stickers, for Senator Amy Klobuchar, a Democrat standing for re-election in November.
“I like his platform; I like his personality,” said Dick Kieren, 76, a retired schoolteacher who will vote for Mr. Stauber. But he will vote for Ms. Klobuchar too: “I could never leave Amy.”
The other possibilty for split-ticket voters—Sandman (Independence Party) / DFL down-ticket—is only glossed in the NYT article:
The race is exposing a rift among Minnesota Democrats — known here as the Democratic Farmer Labor Party, or D.F.L. — that could hurt Mr. Radinovich. Progressives and environmentalists in the Twin Cities are at odds with farmers and miners, many of whom feel the D.F.L. has left them behind.
This requires some unpacking and a bit of a correction, because it's not just progressives and environmentalists in the Twin Cities who are at odds with traditional pro-union, pro-mining DFLers on the Iron Range. Progressives and environmentalists in Duluth, among whom are elected leaders in local DFL organizations, have done the Radinovich campaign no favors with a publicity stunt in July and subsequent tepid support for top-of-the-ticket DFL candidates (Klobuchar, Smith, Radinovich).
In a move blurring their positions as leaders within MN Senate District 7 and within the “Duluth for Clean Water” organization, the SD-7 Executive Committee passed the following resolution on July 10, before the August 14 Primary:
“The DFL Senate District 7 Executive Committee cannot support Tina Smith, Amy Klobuchar, or Rick Nolan in the DFL primary. Our committee was elected by SD7 convention delegates who overwhelmingly passed a resolution opposed to copper sulfide mining, and that same resolution received 58% of the vote from the delegates at the state convention. These candidates have shown themselves to be staunch supporters of copper sulfide mining by voting to support the Superior National Forest land swap and authoring an amendment to list copper as a strategic metal in the National Defense Authorization Act. Both of these actions make copper sulfide mining in Minnesota more likely. As DFL party leaders from a senate district that is opposed to this dangerous type of mining we see these candidates as out of step with the people who elected us to these positions. We strongly urge these candidates to change their position on copper sulfide mining.”
With the intercession of State DFL Chair Ken Martin, that statement was rescinded on July 15. Nevertheless, the SD-7 Executive Committee continued to use the Duluth for Clean Water page to advocate for Michelle Lee over Radinovich and Richard Painter over Smith through the DFL Primary. Lee overperformed in Duluth, a testament to the influence of the Duluth for Clean Water organization. This strand within the Duluth DFL may well vote for Independence Party candidate Ray “Skip” Sandman over Radinovich for issues related to the environment while voting for DFL candidates down-ticket. In August, Aaron Brown proposed a threshold of 5% for Sandman to tip the race to Stauber. My guess is that the threshold is considerably lower now.
Stauber's support is equal to Trump's approval rating in the district plus the crossover emotional appeal of his personal and family mythology plus the protest votes by DFLers for Sandman over Radinovich.
And with the race moved from “Tossup” to Lean R,” with the DCCC moving ad funds out of MN-08 to elsewhere in the state and now with Radinovich' campaign manager's resignation, well... the situation may not be as dire as Siena's 49-34 lead for Stauber, but the trend is looking rough.