Professor McDonald of the University of Florida has been tracking early and election results for nearly 20 years. And, he's never seen anything like the huge early vote coming out for this year's mid-terms. This week, he predicted nation-wide turnout may reach 45-50% nation-wide. If that percentage appears lows, stop and consider Americans haven't voted that high in a mid-term since 19freaking70!
And in some competitive states, early voting on pace to rival 2016. Virginians have cast almost 79,000 absentee ballots, more than double its 2017 record! Loudon County alone is up 236%!
Further south, despite voter supressions efforts, Georgia been smashing turnout records. Waiting as long as 3 hours in Cobb County, Georgians are determined to vote! And, after only one week of early voting, Georgia turnout as of Thursday already hit 40% of its 2014 rate.
And Tennessee edges out GA, up to 44% of its 2014 early vote. Michigan and Iowa are already past a third of their 2014 early voter.
While it's not shocking to see Minnesota blow past its 2014 turnout, it's Indiana who is producing the most-eye popping numbers! The Hoosier state already hit 84% of its 2014 turnout and that's before it expands its early voting locations.
http://www.electproject.org/early_2018
I've read some Kossacks concerned that huge early vote just indicates GOP are equally energized versus any real Dem enthusiasm edge. But, as Obama proved in 2012 enthused Dems can beat an enthused GOP base. It's important to note he lost GOPers and Independents in 2012 yet won that election. Dems perennial problem been getting our sometimes unreliable voters to the polls, and here Obama campaign succeeded masterfully. Like kos said, when we vote, we win! It's that simple.
Plus, this year Independents in several states are leading decidedly Dem so their voters’ increased enthusiasm just adds to our chances of a big blue wave.
Yes 2016 was a bitter blow that taught us all not to trust the polls or interpretations of early vote tallies. But, most political scientists believe the crucial mistake was viewing that election as a choice whether to continue 4 more years of Obama policies vs taking a chance on Trump. Instead, Trump, a nasty SOB abetted by a compliant MSM, succeeded in reframing the election as a referrendum on Clinton.
Now Trump and GOP are desperate to reframe 2018 as a referrendum on HRC, Pelosi, Soros or anyone else but mid-terms are always a referrendum on the current president. It's the time when voters are trained to express any "buyer's remorse." The degree of said remorse marks whether it'll be a wave for opposition party or not.
Consider last year, GOPers were crowing about flipping PA Senate and Governshop, and now they're facing the all too predictable buyer's remorse revolt. Instead of working to tamp down the losses, Trump's desperately flailing to make it a referrendum on anyone or anything else.
But it won't work.
As the Wason Center's Rachel Bitecofer so eloquently stated, 2018 was baked in back on November 9, 2016. For two years, Dem voters been wanting to scream their buyer's remorse at the polls and come hell or high water, they're going to do so.
Nate Silver seemed so cowed by 2016, he's forgotten his own book stressed listen to the signal and ignore the noise.
Rachel Bitecofer 📈🔭🗿💪 @RachelBitecofer
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💪 Retweeted Nate Silver
Rachel Bitecofer
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This trend is clearer now. Generic ballot polls conducted since Kavanaugh was confirmed have not been good for Republicans. All a bit weird because they had a good week of Senate polls and an OK-ish week of House district polls.
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November 9, 2016 was the signal.
2017 sent an even louder signal.
2018's signal going to be so loud it'll bust some eardrums.