As recently as last November, nobody really thought Democrats had a much of a shot, in the Midterms, at taking control of the U.S. Senate. Sure, Democrats swept like wildfire, through some special elections and Statewide elections in New Jersey and Virginia, we looked good on the reasonably predictive generic poll, and we had an unexpected shot at the upcoming December special election in Alabama for Senator, thanks to the GOP’s embrace of the deeply flawed Roy Moore as their candidate. Still, nobody gave Democrats much of a chance of taking control of the Senate, come the Midterms. The map was too difficult, with only 8 Republicans defending seats, while 26 Democrats face reelection and ten of them defend seats in states won by Trump.
But even the wonky statistical prognosticators, at 538.com, currently allow Democratic control of the Senate about a 17% chance, after this election. During the past year, those prospects have improved as supposedly vulnerable Trump-state Democrats, like Senators Casey (D-PA), Baldwin (D-WI), Brown (D-OH), Tester (D-MT), Stabenow (D-MI) and Manchin (D-WV), have significant leads on their GOP challengers. In four other such seats, Senators McCaskill (D-MO), Nelson (D-FL), Heitkamp (D-ND) and Donnelly (D-IN) all have strong campaigns in the field and remain close, if not in margin of error range, to their challengers. None of the Democratic Senators in states won by Hillary Clinton are facing serious challenge, so the very real prospect, of the Trump-state incumbent Democrats, all surviving challenges, truly opens the door to taking Democratic control of the Senate.
That’s because Republicans find themselves, somewhat unexpectedly, playing defense over GOP Senate seats in Arizona, Texas, Nevada and Tennessee. Consequently, Democrats face a genuine opportunity to either win control of the Senate outright, or keep it so close that a single GOP Senator changing allegiance could flip the gavel. A year ago, the path to such an outcome looked like a gloomy, overgrown, dark and obscure forest trail of uncertain direction or destination. Today the path is clear, bright and straight as an arrow, through the four close contests Democrats are defending, MO ND, IN and FL — and through the four close contests Republicans are defending, TX, AZ, NV and TN. Pick and click one from each group and do something, give something, be something for each of two campaigns. Help one of our Senate defenders and one of our Senate challengers. It’s just one week. Taking the Senate from the GOP offers the stoutest rebuke the country can make, by ballot, to Trump and Trumpism. Lean in and leave it all on the street.