www.cookpolitical.com/…
Cook Political Ratings has shifted six US House races, two in favor of Republicans and four toward the Democratic candidates. This includes Republican incumbents Devin Nunes of CA CD-22 and Steven King IA CD-4.
New House ratings changes:
#AR02 Lean R to Likely R (Hill) ⇨
#CA01 Solid R to Likely R (LaMalfa) ⇦
#CA22 Solid R to Likely R (Nunes)⇦
#FL18 Likely R to Lean R (Mast)⇦
#IA04 Likely R to Lean R (King)⇦
#OH01 Toss Up to Lean R (Chabot) ⇨
About Nunes: Cook reports he faces a serious challenger:
Nunes topped Janz by a massive 58 percent to 32 percent in the June primary. But a new Change Research survey conducted for the pro-Democratic group Fight Back CA found Nunes leading by just 51 percent to 46 percent, and Democrats argue Latino voters are awakening in the closing weeks. Nunes, who is running against the Fresno Bee as much as against Janz, remains the heavy favorite.
And Cook says Steven King has not been taking his race that seriously.
However, a poll this week by Democratic firm Change Research found King leading by just 45 percent to 44 percent against his first credible challenger in six years, former minor league baseball pitcher J.D. Scholten. Even in an R+11 seat, the poll makes some sense because Scholten and an anti-King group, American Values PAC, have been on the airwaves totally unanswered the past two weeks.
In addition: Nate Silver compares this year playing field to previous elections. There are vastly more seats, mostly Republican, in play.
Nate Silver Oct 28
Not sure people realize how broad the House playing field is. In our final forecast in 2014, the Deluxe version of our House model would have considered 44 seats to be competitive. In 2016, it would have had 39 competitive seats. This year, it shows *99* competitive races.
www.rollcall.com/…
Stu Rothenberg brings up the old belief that incumbents that are tied near the end of the race usually lose because voters have known them longer and their resistance indicates underlying problems with voting for reelection. But old rules may not apply this election.
Because undecideds break disproportionately to the challenger, any incumbent who is winning by a point or is in a dead heat in the final 10 days of a campaign ought to be an underdog in the election.
That’s why handicappers view incumbents who are ahead 44 percent to 43 percent or even 46 percent to 45 percent as being in terrible shape politically. (Incumbents who are running even or slightly ahead but are getting 48 or 49 percent of the vote have a better chance to eke out a win.)