I can pinpoint the exact moment that I realized 2014 was going sideways. Every poll indicated Mark Warner walking to a second term—and yet he barely held on against Ed Gillespie.
We could potentially have a similar “canary in the coal mine” moment shaping up in this midterm cycle. Namely, in IA-04, the district of one of the most execrable members of the House, Steve King. Part of the reason King seems to think he can get away with acting like an unhinged—and recently, borderline racist—idiot is that on paper, this district would elect a comatose Republican. At R+11, it’s easily the reddest district in Iowa. There has been exactly ONE remotely competitive race here in the last three decades—in 2012, when Christie Vilsack held King to an eight-point win. It’s the only race where King has won by less than 22.
And yet, there have been a lot of signs for some time that King is in more trouble this year than he may think. His Democratic opponent, J. D. Scholten, has raised far more money than you would expect for a Democrat in a district this red—over $1.6 million, more than double King’s haul. It’s allowed him to criss-cross this 39-county, Sioux City-to-Mason City district several times.
People outside Iowa are taking notice—he got an interview with Chris Hayes two weeks ago. So are people inside Iowa—Scholten recently nabbed the endorsement of the biggest paper anchored in the district, the Sioux City Journal.
But today brought even more notice that this could potentially be a race that breaks in a way almost no one expected. In case you missed it, Cook Political Report moved IA-04 from “Likely Republican” to “Lean Republican” as part of its batch of race updates.
The fact an R+11 district that gave Trump 63 percent of the vote was even on the board at all should have been enough by itself to hike eyebrows. But Cook Political House editor Dave Wasserman revealed that the biggest reason this is still a race is named Steven Arnold King.
An eight-term incumbent not even running a serious campaign even though he’s facing a real challenger for only the second time ever? How is that possible? Simple. King has no money and no ads.
Almost all of your money going toward fundraising or paying your families’ salaries? No ads at all in a district where paid media is really cheap? This would be unbelievable in any year. For an eight-term incumbent facing a real race, it’s nothing short of staggering.
That’s a big reason why King’s recently released poll showing him with an 18-point lead doesn’t sound believable. There are two others as well. Not only is it out of step with all published polling in this race, but there is no sign King is getting any coattails from Kim Reynolds in the governor’s race. When Republicans win statewide in Iowa, everything west of Des Moines is coated red.
FiveThirtyEight currently projects King with a 51-45 lead over Scholten—which would be nothing short of a disaster if repeated at an actual election. By all rights, King should be winning by at least 15. Anything less than a double-digit win means a long night for the GOP, both in Iowa and nationally. If Scholten pulls this thing off, Katy bar the door—we’re winning the House by a lot, with at least 40 seats being flipped.
To put this in perspective, imagine if there was a similar situation playing out in a D+11 seat—like Debbie Wasserman Schultz’ FL-23, for instance. We’d be in full freakout mode here.
Scholten is going to need a lot of help, though. There’s no way the GOP is going to let an R+11 district go down unchallenged. Click here to donate.