Conspiracy theories have existed since the dawn of humanity. Typically, it was the uninformed who concocted fantasies, either for their own benefit, or to explain circumstances that they deemed disadvantageous to their wellbeing. In November 2016 that changed with the election of Donald Trump. Unencumbered by facts, previously Trump had hosted several major conspiracy theories. Those included the whopper that Barack Obama had been born in Kenya, that he had seen Muslims in the streets cheering on 9/11, vaccines caused autism, and that the danger posed by asbestos was a con job. Since his election as POTUS (and a little before as the GOP candidate), however, he has had access to the best intelligence of any country in the world. Yet, he has continued to espouse new conspiracy theories, even when the evidence was clearly counter-indicative. Wittingly or not, these fabrications have been to the detriment of the country and undermined U.S. credibility internationally.
Secrecy is both necessary and dangerous. The U.S. Government’s main problem with secrecy is that it is vastly overused. To be sure, there are things that deserve to be protected. Traditionally, that includes sources and methods, i.e. who is providing information or the operational parameters of sophisticated sensor systems. While working with the Army Science Board we received a number of classified briefings. Only once did I hear of a capability for which I agreed it should be kept classified. In fact, it was really sensitive and could lead to loss of life if revealed. Conversely, classification is sometimes used improperly merely to prevent embarrassment or other nefarious purpose. (1) However, with nearly half a century associated with various levels classified material, I state with certainty the over-classification is a norm and expensive as well. As a senior fellow at a DoD university, I had a chance to read promulgating documents on the Global War on Terror. From that I concluded the authors would order the New York Times as Top Secret and many of the classified documents were a step below common sense. The comment of a contractor for the Office of the Secretary of Defense still rings. That statement was, “It is easier to classify everything than to figure out what really needs to be protected.”
There are many problems associated with over-classification. Those repeatedly have been articulated in many investigation reports, but almost never lead to resolution of the issues. Excess expense is an important factor (like $100B by some estimates). Another huge downside to over-classification is, however, that it provides the genesis for conspiracy theories. Those without access to veridical information often fill in the blanks with little or no constraints, including basic logic. Fear runs amuck and the absolute worst is assumed. There are no lower limits to what conspiracy theorists will state and for which an audience can be found. When addressing groups about a personal interest of mine, UFOs, I inform them they must understand conspiracy theory as by fiat they have become part of it. Either they believe there is a huge nefarious secret program, or if they don’t, they are part of the coverup.
But conspiracy theories don’t stop with studies of phenomena and adversely can impact many areas of our daily lives. For a democracy to function, trust and confidence in the structure and organizations are imperative. The political arena has become rife with conspiracy theories. While not new, the depth and acceptance has reached levels not previously attained. Consider Pizzagate, in which senior officials were reported to actually be pedophiles and were actively running a ring of sexually abused children out of a D.C. pizza shop. As ridiculous as that was, Edgar Maddison Welch, was arrested after he came to the shop firing a weapon thinking he would free the trapped girls and boys. Constantly circulating is a list of the names of people who allegedly have been killed by, or at the behest of, the Clintons. One, the murder of a DNC staffer Seth Rich, was even supported by Sean Hannity on Fox News and widely spread through right-wing media.
Despite overwhelming evidence to the contrary, Trump insisted that millions of illegal immigrants had voted in the 2016 presidential election, thus costing him the popular vote. That was taken so far as to appoint a commission to study voter fraud. Headed by Vice President Mike Pence and Kris Kobach of Kansas, the Presidential Committee on Election Integrity was briefly authorized. Due to lack of supporting evidence the commission was abruptly terminated. Still, that has not stopped the rumors. Trump still claims the Obama wiretapped his phones during the campaign. Very egregiously, when speaking of Hurricane Maria, he stated that there were not near the number of deaths in Puerto Rico as now have been authenticated. Without even reading the texts, Trump has directed that FBI communications during the election be declassified and released to the public. His assumption is that the released documents will support his assertions that the FBI and other intelligence organizations were conspiring against him and cannot be trusted. Fortunately, cooler heads have temporarily prevailed and that order placed on hold.
An international embarrassment, Trump impetuously retweeted videos from the anti-Muslim organization Britain First that purportedly showed Muslims in Europe committing crimes and destroying Christian icons. Though the authenticity was questionable, Trump’s position was supported by the White House Press Secretary, Sarah Huckabee Sanders, who suggested that since the UK had a terrorist problem, reality of the content didn’t matter.
It is important to note that public confidence in the federal government in general is extremely low. While Trump’s approval rating runs about 39 percent, his disapproval rating is extraordinarily high (54%). Congress does not fare better with an abysmal approval rating of about 16 percent. The public has every right to be concerned about statements from Washington. In recent history we saw the Bush Administration order the invasion of Iraq based on false information. The significant difference was that they believed that credible evidence existed, whereas the current POTUS must know his actions are based on counterfactual data.
Given the extant significant credibility gap, Trump’s fostering of conspiracy theories seriously undermines his ability to manage a real crisis. Already publicly expressed, there is very real concern that he might attempt to initiate a nuclear strike based on his emotion, not facts provided by the intelligence community. As Bob Woodard points out in his recent book, Fear, Trump holds a number of counterfactual ideas. He has no rationale for them other than he just always believed it. Worse, he has a stated distrust of people and information derived from people. That impacts his reliance on much of the data provided to him by the intelligence community.
In addition to Fox News Channel, it appears that he supports external conspiracy-oriented groups such as QAnon and has even been photographed with their members. They have been very prominent at his campaign rallies and foster very strange opinions such as the Mueller probe is not about Trump, but actually part of a joint plan to expose the deep state and finally arrest Hillary Clinton. Why any serious individual would not distance themselves from such a nutty group is mind-boggling, but on par for Trump.
There are very serious questions regarding the competency of Donald Trump. Some people, such as the effort led by Tom Steyer, openly call for his impeachment. That is unlikely to be successful without a major shift in the U.S. Senate. Importantly, impeachments means only to bring charges against a president or other official. It does not equate to removal from office. President Bill Clinton was impeached but that did little except to disrupt the government for a few months. As Leon Panetta stated on CNN, we are already in a Constitutional Crisis.
Conspiracy controversy has now reached into the appointment of Brett Kavanaugh to the U.S. Supreme Court. Before the 28 September hearings, Trump indicated that there was a left-wing conspiracy against the nominee. Then during those hearings, Kavanaugh himself reiterated that train of thought. Right-wing talk radio hosts, such as Rush Limbaugh, incites their audiences claiming that every adverse event, no matter how major or minor, is part of a coordinated leftist conspiracy. Understanding the mechanisms of complex organizations, it defies common sense that all such actions are carefully orchestrated. Judging from the responses of their callers, promoting those conspiracy theories are effective in garnering support. Kavanaugh is hardly an isolated example. Conspiracy theories abound and influence policy to a significant degree. Consider that Trump, and some of his key appointees, believe that climate change is a Chinese hoax. The recent policies of the EPA and Department of Interior highlight that problem.
Of grave concern should be that Trump appears to have weaponized conspiracy theory techniques. Difficult to determine is how much he really believes about his theories, and how much of the misinformation is purely to energize his base. Well known is his propensity to repeat rumors or just make up facts (aka alternative facts) in the spur of the moment. When corrected by fact-checkers, his enablers warn even against believing them. We definitely are living in a post-truth world.
Trump’s consummate foil is the mainstream media. To the delight of his sycophants, he constantly plays the victim. Oblivious to the First Amendment protections afforded to the press, frequently he points his fingers at the assembled reporters informing the crowd that they (the professional media) “are the enemy of the people.” This recurring theme is both effective and detrimental to the nation. So too has been the fake news refrain. A substantial majority of adults indicated they do not trust major news outlets. That peaks among those who identify as Republican with over 90 percent having less confidence over the past decade.
In a post-truth world, conspiracy theories gain momentum and credence. Unfortunately, the current U.S. President unabashedly exacerbates the situation. Unchecked by a GOP dominated Congress; ones fearful of his small, but active base that greatly influence GOP primaries, he runs roughshod over the American citizenry. Trump’s ineptitude or inability for sticking to the truth is well established. His generation of conspiracy theories has another, even more serious downside. That is, what is the public response should a real crisis emerge? How do people act when they do not know what is believable and what not?
It is imperative that all possible measures be taken to counter this insidious corruption of our democracy. For the media, that means impeccable reporting. Getting facts right must take precedence over speed to delivery. Any need for correction is taken as a flaw in the system and diminishes confidence. At every turn, inaccurate conspiracy theories must be countered. The immediate action item is getting out the vote; especially among the younger generations, the ones who will inherit this mess.
(1) From personal experience I respectfully disagree with the 2014 IG report from the DNI that stated “IG found no instances where classification was used to conceal violation of law, inefficiency, or administrative error; prevent embarrassment to a person, organization, or agency; restrain competition; or prevent or delay the release of information not requiring protection in the interest of national security.”