Well, winter has come to Central Texas, at least for a few days. It was 24 degrees at my house Wednesday morning, which I know makes some of you northern folks chuckle, but that’s almost as cold as it ever gets around here. Of course, by Saturday it will be 72 degrees, which brings to mind the old joke—“Me: Is it summer or winter? Texas: Yes.”
But it also brings to mind something that I know folks up north will relate to. Every year brings the cold, dark season. Plants die, pipes freeze, the north wind howls, and it seems we barely have time to get out of bed before it’s night time again. But we endure, because we know, as Shelley said, “If winter comes, can spring be far behind?” And before we know it, after seemingly endless months of this
we get to wake up to this
For the last two years, our country has experienced a dark national winter. Many of us, convinced that the worst had happened, felt that there could be no recovery from the 2016 elections, that spring could never come again. You, know, the feeling one often gets in late February. But some of us, help up by each other and our certain knowledge that no winter lasts forever, came together at this little thing called the Good News Roundup (instigated, of course, by our own Goddess of Spring, GNR). Together we have helped each other remember the coming spring, and have helped spread the word to others who had trouble seeing it coming.
The good news has always been there, like flower bulbs beneath the snow. And it has been my privilege and pleasure to help remind people that those bulbs would someday grow and bloom.
And, at long last, spring is beginning in America. In two years, we have gone from this
to this
Unlike the natural seasons, this national spring happened only because we kept faith that it would and worked very, very hard to make it a reality. And the struggle is far from over. Spring is just beginning, like a lone bluebonnet pushing through the snow. But now we know, more than ever, that when we fight, we can win. I hope that everyone reading this will keep fighting in the expectation that we will keep winning. The forces of evil—for that’s what they are—are scared now. Let’s show them that that’s the only thing they’ve ever been right about.
Programming note: I’ll be leaving for an entire day in Austin early this morning, so I’ll be absent from the comment section today. I know you’ll be able to carry on without me. A big thanks to all who read and comment on my postings each Thursday.
Now, let’s celebrate spring with some music to get the juices flowing a bit.
AIN’T NO PARTY LIKE A BLUE WAVE PARTY ‘CAUSE A BLUE WAVE PARTY DON’T STOP
THE VOTING TURNOUT WAS HUGE
It’s extremely unlikely that anyone reading this was alive the last time a midterm turnout was this high.
That was on Sunday—the turnout numbers are increasing as more votes are still being counted. And, as we know, when people vote, we win.
At present, 115 million Americans — a 32 percent increase from the 2014 midterm election — voted in the 2018 midterm elections. This turnout rate of 49 percent of eligible voters is the highest since 1914 and largest since the 1920 ratification of the 19th Amendment, which gave women the right to vote.
Young voters (18-29), saw a 56 percent surge over its 2014 turnout, which is the highest increase in turnout among any age group. While only 31 percent of eligible younger voters showed up to the polls, this is an increase of several million voters and were to the benefit of Democrats. As Harvard University’s John Della Volpe noted, it is estimated that the overwhelming majority of the added young voters backed Democrats and were primarily responsible for the wins of Democratic candidates.
Demographic shifts:
Three voting blocs saw major shifts toward Democrats from 2014 to 2018: Women, young voters and senior citizens. The following shifts are of note:
- Women voters went from D+4 in 2014 to D+19 in 2018
- Young voters were D+11 in 2014 to D+35 in 2018
- Voters 65 and older broke R+16 in 2014, but shifted toward Dems and were R+2 in 2018
These are astounding shifts within these three demographics.
TRUMPANZEES STOOD BY THEIR MAN, BUT THERE WEREN’T ENOUGH OF THEM
As we all know, Trump became President despite getting fewer votes than the better candidate. But the nonsensical slavery-era Electoral College system was of no help to the GOP on election day.
It looks like, though, when all the votes from California are in, Republicans will have earned just about 46 percent of the vote nationally — almost exactly the same share as two years ago.
All that diner journalism about how Trump voters still like Trump was, in other words, pretty much on the money (at least in the aggregate). It’s just that it didn’t matter.
There were never enough Trump voters to form a majority of the electorate. And that, more than suburban backlash or anything else, is what did in Republicans on Tuesday. The Trump voters stood by Trump and voted Republican, but this time around, everyone else voted for the Democrats. And the Democrats won.
...the House GOP seemed confident that their gerrymanders would hold. And then when polling in September and October suggested clearly that it wouldn’t, Trump started ranting about the caravan. The political goal here, we were told, was to rally Trump’s base to come back home, which more or less happened. Except 46 percent of the population just isn’t that many people.
We all know how important GOTV is to winning elections, The truth is, though, that the GOP just doesn’t have that many V to GO. The Republican base has taken comfort in the mistaken idea that they are representative of America, a belief bolstered by the MSM’s fawning portrayals of loyal Trump cult members. That doesn’t matter—there’s just one way to describe what happened to them on election night, presented here in a format many of them will understand.
Need more proof that we have the lunatic right outnumbered?
MAJOR DEMOCRATIC ENDORSEMENTS WERE FAR MORE EFFECTIVE THAN TRUMP’S
The truth is, voters love all our major politicians and they really don’t like Trump. As a result, endorsements by the like of Bernie Sanders and Barack Obama were gold, but Trump’s was toxic.
The Brookings Institution found Trump endorsed 75 candidates, Obama endorsed 74, Vice President Mike Pence endorsed 61, former Vice President Joe Biden endorsed 57 and former presidential candidate Senator Bernie Sanders endorsed 24.
Sander’s candidates fared the best with 66 percent winning, followed by Biden with 61 percent, Obama next with 52 percent, then Pence with 40 percent and Trump with only 28 percent.
The pattern of endorsements showed Trump should have had a huge night as he only endorsed candidates in heavily Republican districts. Obama and Sanders endorsed candidates in majority Democrat districts but a competitive GOP presence as did Pence in the opposite direction. Only Biden, with a 61 percent success rate, endorsed candidates in toss up races where neither candidate or party was favored.
If recounts or all ballots are counted in several key states, Trump may see a few more tick marks in his loss column.
DEMOCRATS CONTINUE TO PICK UP HOUSE SEATS, AND WILL PROBABLY GET MORE
Fox and Friends said yesterday that taking the time to count all the votes “takes the fun out of election night.” I guess that depends on which side you’re on. Several sources called CA-10, CA-48, and NJ-03 for Team Blue yesterday. We’re looking good in UT-04, CA-45 and NY-22, and could conceivably still win in CA-39, GA-07, and even TX-23. A good source for the latest results, continuously updated, can be found at the New York Times, which is at least good for something.
Obviously voters had a simple message for Republicans last Tuesday.
DEMOCRATS MADE BIGGEST GAINS IN RURAL DISTRICTS
Much has been made of the leftward shift in suburban districts, and certainly that was a major factor in the huge victory on Election Day. But the untold story of the midterms is a huge shift that took place in rural districts. This shift wasn’t universal—my district, for instance, is still one of the reddest in the country. But the writing is on the wall in some of the previously most GOP-friendly parts of the country.
Election analysts have zeroed in on Donald Trump’s weakness in well-educated suburban districts to explain the outcome of the 2018 midterms, in which Democrats won back more than 30 House seats. But the biggest losses of the night for Republicans, in terms of raw vote share, actually happened in rural districts, long presumed to be GOP territory.
Based on data compiled by the Cook Political Report’s Dave Wasserman, the top House vote swing from Hillary Clinton’s vote share in 2016 was in West Virginia’s 3rd District, where Democrat and newly christened presidential candidate Richard Ojeda improved on Clinton’s performance by 36.5 percentage points. Among non-incumbents, the second-largest swing was Talley Sergent, another West Virginia candidate, who improved Clinton’s numbers in the 2nd District by 25.3 points. The No. 3 non-incumbent vote swing came from J.D. Scholten, the Democratic candidate for Iowa’s 4th Congressional District, who came within 3 points of Rep. Steve King, a 23.7-point swing over Clinton’s race against Trump.
Those margins are far bigger than the gap that successful Democratic candidates had to bridge: The biggest House vote swing from a Democratic challenger who actually flipped a district was 15.9 points, by Congressperson-elect Anthony Brindisi in New York’s 22nd District.
The trends are there. Imagine what could happen if the national Democratic party ever realizes that no area should be written off.
Scholten was one of a handful of progressive populists who campaigned hard in rural districts that were written off by national Democrats. He had harsh words for the party’s rural outreach across the country; he considers it inattentive to the lived experience of those struggling with depopulation, lack of opportunity, and despair. “It’s getting harder and harder to live in rural America, and definitely rural Iowa,” he said. His advice to party leaders is to show up and listen to people’s concerns in order to demystify the image of Democrats that rural Americans get from Fox News without much pushback.
In other good news not directly about the midterms…
NEW DALLAS D.A. WILL PROBABLY CHARGE KILLER COP WITH MURDER
More than two months ago a Dallas cop shot an African-American man in his own home. She claims she mistakenly entered what she thought was her own apartment and thought the actual resident was an intruder, although her story has changed several times.
The Republican District Attorney charged the cop with manslaughter. But on Election Night, Democrat John Creuzot won election to the post by 20 points, and he seems to be inclined to press more serious charges.
More than two months after an unarmed and innocent 26-year-old, Botham Shem Jean, was shot to death in his apartment by former Dallas police officer Amber Guyger, newly elected Dallas District Attorney John Creuzot is ready to do the job his predecessor failed to—charge Guyger with murder.
“I don’t know any police reports. I don’t know any forensic reports, but based on what I have seen, manslaughter is an inappropriate charge, based on the circumstances as I understand them,” he said. “Once I get in there and I get everything in front of me and it appears the most appropriate charge is murder, then that’s the charge we will go forward with.
“I think I’m going to join everybody else in praying that we don’t have any more police shootings. That’s the first step. That’s not on us. That’s on the police,” he added.
HAS JEFF FLAKE GROWN A SPINE?
Everyone knows how things usually go. Jeff Flake expresses dismay at some batshit crazy thing Trump does, but neither takes any action in response or, indeed, even threatens to. But that might, maybe, possibly, be changing after Mitch McTurtle blocked a bill protecting Robert Mueller yesterday.
Retiring Republican Sen. Jeff Flake said Wednesday that he will not vote to confirm the Trump administration's judicial nominees on the Senate floor or advance them in the Senate Judiciary Committee if legislation to protect special counsel Robert Mueller does not receive a Senate floor vote.
Flake made the new judicial threat after he and Sen. Chris Coons, a Delaware Democrat, unsuccessfully attempted to force a Senate vote on the special counsel legislation Wednesday. Senate Majority Leader Mitch McConnell objected to the request for a vote from Flake.
But the Arizona Republican's threats on judicial nominees could complicate matters in the Judiciary Committee, where Republicans have an 11-10 majority. There are currently 21 judicial nominees pending in the committee and 32 who are awaiting a floor vote, Flake said.
This newfound firmness on Flake’s part is interesting, especially since he’s considering running against Trump in 2020. Still, I take it with a grain of salt. It’s common knowledge that there are earthworms with more backbone than Flake, and I can easily see him taking the Susan Collins way out of accepting a promise from McConnell to consider the bill in the future. File this one under “news I hope is true.”
POLL: MAJORITY OF AMERICANS WANT TRUMP TO BE PRIMARIED IN 2020
A recent poll has found that a large majority of registered voters want a Republican to challenge Trump in the 2020 GOP primary.
A poll from Hill.TV and HarrisX polling that was released this week found that nearly three-quarters of voters—72 percent—would like Trump to face a GOP challenger in the primaries. Just 28 percent wanted him to be the GOP nominee without facing a Republican opponent.
Despite Trump's relative popularity among GOP voters, even a fair number of Republicans wanted him to face a challenger in the 2020 primary. Forty-three percent of GOP respondents said Trump should face a primary challenge.
"Those aren't that great numbers for President Trump," Republican pollster Conor Maguire told Hill.TV. "There seems to be a lot of Republicans that are really not sold on reelection."
JOHN KASICH HINTS AT POSSIBLE THIRD PARTY RUN IN 2020
Why settle for challenging Trump in the primary when you can be the right’s Jill Stein?
If you’re tired of having to only choose between two presidential candidates in elections, you might soon have a new option. Outgoing Republican Gov. John Kasich of Ohio is considering launching a third-party challenge in 2020.
Speaking on Monday’s episode of “The View,” Kasich told host Whoopi Goldberg that “all of my options are on the table” adding, “I think, for the first time, there is a legitimate chance for a third-party candidate.”Cat & Bird lovers cooperate to lower bird kills
Who wouldn’t love to see Trump lose Wisconsin and Michigan because of a third-party candidacy? My advice to Gov. Kasich:
GUESS WHO HAD A BIRTHDAY?
Neil Young is still with us after 73 years. It’s a good excuse to play this next song. Neil’s birthday was Monday.
Some of you may know that Mr. Young lost his primary home in the Southern California wildfires. His response to Trump’s nonsensical statement about the California fires was blistering.
“California is vulnerable — not because of poor forest management, as DT (our so-called president) would have us think,” the longtime environmental activist wrote on his website, Neil Young Archives. “As a matter of fact this is not a forest fire that rages on as I write this. We are vulnerable because of Climate Change; the extreme weather events and our extended drought is part of it… Our temperatures are higher than ever here in our hottest summer on record. That has not helped. DT seems to be the Denier. (I’m holding back and not using the word liar just because it rhymes with denier.) It really is time for a reckoning with this unfit leader. Maybe our new Congress can help. I sure hope so.”
Young ended the essay by writing, “Imagine a leader who defies science, saying these solutions shouldn’t be part of his decision-making on our behalf. Imagine a leader who cares more for his own, convenient option than he does for the people he leads. Imagine an unfit leader. Now imagine a fit one.”
Here are some ways you can help firefighters and victims of California fires.
NEW HARRIS COUNTY, TEXAS, COUNTY CLERK PLANS TO REPLACE DEFECTIVE, INSECURE VOTING MACHINES
This is why downticket elections matter.
The newly elected Harris County clerk plans to phase out the county’s eSlate voting machines, which have occasionally caused problems for voters.
Diane Trautman, who beat the incumbent in the countywide sweep of Democrats, also wants to improve the county’s elections technology so voters can cast ballots in any precinct on Election Day. Currently, residents are allowed to vote at any polling place during early voting, but must use a designated location on Election Day.
“We must replace the current electronic machines with an electronic machine that produces a verifiable paper trail,” Trautman said.
ONLINE SHOE STORE DONATES A PAIR OF SHOES TO THE HOMELESS FOR EVERY PAIR SOLD
Here’s a way you can get a pretty decent looking pair of shoes and make sure that a homeless person gets a pair as well.
It was not uncommon for Tian Mu to pass by someone who was living on the streets as he commuted every day in Los Angeles. After much contemplation, the seasoned tech entrepreneur decided to put his best foot forward for his local community—by devoting the heart and ‘sole’ of his next venture to helping the homeless.
With a bit of divine inspiration, Tian came up with Brethren Shoes—an online store that offers to give as much comfort as it sells.
“Homelessness in America is so pervasive, we can’t help but feel overwhelmed, but I believe in the kindness and generosity of the human spirit,” says the new footwear CEO.
Brethren Shoes is the only e-commerce store for men’s shoes that utilizes a “buy-one, give-one” model, notably made popular by TOMS Shoes. For those less familiar, the idea is simple—for every pair purchased, a second pair is donated. Unlike TOMS, however, Brethren Shoes focuses solely on assisting people experiencing homelessness in the U.S.
Additionally, if you just want to donate a pair to someone in need without buying a pair for yourself, Brethren Shoes offers a special charity price of just $33.
The website is right here. I’m definitely getting me a new pair of boots.
BERKELEY ORGANIZATION OFFERS FREE BIRTHDAY PARTIES FOR HOMELESS KIDS
Every child deserves a birthday celebration.
Habitot Children's Museum in Berkeley, California is making an unusually generous offer to the families of homeless kids. They are providing them with the opportunity to celebrate their child's birthday at their facility for free. Their free birthday party offer includes all the standards: decor, pizza, juice, cake, and even goodie bags for the guests. Plus, they gift the birthday child something special.
Now, I'm not sure the age limit for the eligible children but, according to their site, the museum serves infants, toddlers and preschoolers.
Homelessness is an issue that has special meaning for me. I didn’t always live in a three-bedroom house on an acre of land in Central Texas. When I was much younger, I spent over a year living in the woods outside of Guerneville, California. It’s a hard life that most of those living it did not choose. Here’s a song (with a coupleof exquisite guitar solos) that sums up that, and many people’s struggle, quite nicely, I think.
MOUNTAIN GORILLAS TAKE A BIG STEP BACK FROM EXTINCTION
In a stunning success for conservationists, the number of Africa’s mountain gorillas has increased to over 1,000 after falling to a precarious low of 240 30 years ago.
Forty years ago, Dian Fossey and the world were devastated when a family of mountain gorillas — named Group 4 — was decimated by poachers. Group 4 was the very first group of gorillas to be studied by Dr. Fossey after she established the Karisoke Research Center and included individuals like Uncle Bert, who she named after her own uncle, and Digit, the first gorilla to accept her presence. Over the course of 1978, four gorillas in Group 4 were killed by poachers and another three died as a result of the group’s disruption. By December of that year, only three of the original 11 group members remained together.
With her beloved Group 4 destroyed, and the mountain gorilla population headed toward a low point of only about 240 individuals, Fossey feared the species would go extinct before the year 2000.
Instead, today, due to the intensive protection efforts Fossey initiated, mountain gorillas have reached a new historic milestone: their numbers have gradually increased over the past 30 years, and are up from 240 to 604, based on the latest census. (Another separate population of 400 individuals bring the total number of mountain gorillas to just over 1,000).
As a result, their official status has just been re-classified, from “critically endangered” — the highest level of threat — to “endangered,” moving them a level further from extinction.
“This is a remarkable and unique conservation success story,” says Fossey Fund President and CEO/Chief Scientist Dr. Tara Stoinski. “It is the result of decades of on-the-ground protection by hundreds of dedicated individuals, many of whom lost their lives to protect the gorillas, and a testament to the conservation efforts of the governments of Rwanda, Uganda and the Democratic Republic of Congo where these gorillas live.”
“Endangered” is still not very good, but this news proves that, even in the poorest and most war-torn parts of the world, international cooperation can make great strides in protecting our planet’s irreplaceable wildlife.
And that will do it for me today. It’s a real joy to share our recent successes with you, but we’ve still got a long way to go. I’ll tell you straight up—this still isn’t enough good news. It’s up to all of you to go out and make some of your own.
But we know that we can build a better world if we continue to fight all for one and one for all.
We’ll let these good ol’ homeboys play us out today.