With the probable victories of Katie Porter and Gil Cisneros, it seems that formerly ruby red Orange County is about to field a congressional contingent which is all Democrat. The county which former County Supervisor Tom Riley called “the great republican powerhouse” has gone blue!
As someone who has lived here for a while, I feel our recent victories need a bit of examination for their long term effect. If citizens of other counties and states find useful hints here to help them in their own efforts, that would please me greatly. A bit of background may help:
In the seventies, Orange County was about 50/50, but when Democrats took over state government in 1980, they promptly gerrymandered the state, and Orange County was the throw-away. For a few safe republican seats there, Democrats got many more in L.A. County. Enraged, the republicans sponsored an initiative which would create a non-partisan commission to handle reapportionment, and it passed. The immediate result was that republicans lost even more seats, but the real beginning of the end for them came with proposition 187. This obviously discriminatory initiative actually passed, only to be shot down by the courts. From that date republicans have had a snowball’s chance of garnering Hispanic votes, and that was a big part of this year’s results. After many years of GOP shrinkage, our Federal House contingent looks to be only about 20% republican.
But in all this history Orange County remained proudly red until this year. Bearing in mind that we remain a majority republican county in registration, something profoundly different happened here to give the blue team such victories.
Organization on our side was like I have never seen before. We had great candidates with plenty of cash, huge groundswell support, and the best message; but this was never going to be enough.
It seems clear that a great many registered Republicans voted for Democratic candidates this time. They haven’t changed their party affiliations; their votes seem more inspired by revulsion than loyalty. Many I have talked to have come to wonder what happened to the party they once had so much respect for. Others wonder who is this fool in the White House, making them all look bad. I believe most of them voted out of protest.
Such sentiments can be ephemeral. If the republicans field candidates who are not conspicuous bigots, who are not owned by Russia, and who actually can add two and two to get four, they could easily win back some of these seats.
Democrats here have to spend the next two years showing these new constituents that the Democratic party can best represent them and champion (most of) their causes. They have fears to be eased, goals to be honored, a future to encourage.
These O.C. Republicans have much in common with the educated suburbanites in red states who made such a difference this year. All these folks are perhaps on the cusp of a realignment, but they need some encouragement. I plan to adopt a few Republicans and make a few new friends. Without disparaging their party or their convictions, I would hope to show that the Democratic party is not merely the lesser of two evils, but the better choice for them.
They seem ready to listen.