On Monday, in a major surprise, Republican Sen. John Kennedy announced that he would not challenge Democratic Gov. John Bel Edwards in next year's race for governor of Louisiana.
Kennedy's decision was unexpected because he sounded quite likely to run in October and had even released a pair of polls this year showing him decisively beating Edwards in a head-to-head race. However, a recent poll from local pollster Bernie Pinsonat gave the senator a much smaller 49-45 edge, an indication that a 2019 race might not have been a slam dunk even in this conservative state.
Kennedy, who was elected to his Senate seat two years ago on his third try, might also have been telling the truth when he said he loved being in the Senate as he explained why he wasn't running. While he's only a freshman, Kennedy has regularly attracted national attention thanks to his media-friendly quotes, much like John McCain once did. While Kennedy would have been able to keep his Senate seat even if he'd lost a governor's race, his stature in D.C. invariably would have diminished, and a defeat could have even encouraged a strong GOP opponent to challenge him for re-election in 2022.
Still, while the well-known Kennedy was likely the strongest candidate Team Red could have run against Edwards, there are plenty of other Republicans who could run.
Wealthy businessman Eddie Rispone in fact already announced his entry in October, and he's pledged to self-fund at least $5 million. Rep. Ralph Abraham, who represents northeast Louisiana, also said last week that he'd decide by Jan. 1, adding, "If we had to make a decision today, then I would say we are certainly leaning that way."
State Treasurer John Schroder, who won his seat in a special election last year, also expressed interest in running right after Kennedy made his announcement, saying he would "talk to people about it, but right now I'm a little bit surprised." State Sen. Sharon Hewitt, a former oil industry executive who represents part of St. Tammany Parish north of New Orleans, also said she was considering back in 2017. While Hewitt doesn’t appear to have spoken about her plans since then, she continues to be mentioned in the media as a potential candidate.
Louisiana’s 2019 filing deadline isn’t until August, so potential candidates have a while to decide what to do, and unlike in just about every other state, it’s not uncommon for office-seekers to wait until very late to launch their campaigns. All candidates will face off on a single ballot on Oct. 12, and if no one takes a majority of the vote, there would be a runoff on Nov. 16.
While Edwards is almost certain to be a major GOP target, he’s no pushover. Edwards defeated then-Sen. David Vitter in November 2015 in a victory that few people thought was possible even shortly before it happened. As recently as July of that year, former Sen. Mary Landrieu and state Democratic Party Chair Karen Carter Peterson even reportedly asked Edwards to drop out and run for attorney general instead so that he wouldn’t prevent a moderate Republican from beating the despised Vitter; Edwards didn’t take their advice, and he ended up beating Vitter 56-44.
Edwards has also been popular during his tenure: A Morning Consult poll from the third quarter of 2018 gave him a 47-34 approval rating, and even Kennedy’s October poll from SurveyUSA gave Edwards a 53-39 favorable score. Kennedy also seemed to agree Edwards would be a formidable opponent. Just last week, he told CNN, “I think based on the extensive polling that I've done and I've seen there are only two people who can beat him: one is Scalise and one is me,” referring to Rep. Steve Scalise, who will be the second-ranking Republican in the House come January. Well, Scalise isn’t running, and now, neither is Kennedy.