Governor-by-CD, Senate-by-CD : We’ll hit Minnesota next, another state where both parties got some big wins. Democrat Tim Walz defeated Republican Jeff Johnson 54-42 in the race to succeed retiring Gov. Mark Dayton, while Democratic Sen. Amy Klobuchar beat Republican Jim Newberger 60-36 to win a third term. Appointed Democratic Sen. Tina Smith also won a special election for the final two years of former Sen. Al Franken’s term by beating Republican Karin Housley 53-42.
Democrats kept their five-to-three majority in the state’s House delegation, but half of Minnesota’s congressional districts changed hands. Republicans flipped Walz’s open 1st District and the open 8th District, while Democrats unseated two Republican incumbents in the 2nd and 3rd Districts in the Twin Cities suburbs.
We’ll start with a look at the two seats that went from blue to red. The 1st District in the southern part of the state has long been swingy territory, but it lurched hard to the right from 50-48 Obama to 53-38 Trump. Republican Jim Hagedorn failed to unseat Walz in 2014 and 2016, but he defeated Democrat Dan Feehan in a tight 50.1-49.7 win. The good news for Team Blue is that there’s reason to hope that this seat could be in play again in 2020. Walz carried his seat this year by a narrow 49.5-47.2, while Housley only won it 48.6-46.4 in the Senate special. (This was the one seat to back both Walz and Housley.) Klobuchar had no trouble taking the 1st District 54-42.
Team Red also flipped the 8th District in the rural Iron Range region in the northeast corner of the state. Democrats used to do well in this area, but it swung hard from 52-46 Obama to 54-39 Trump, and Republican Pete Stauber defeated Democrat Joe Radinovich 51-45 this year. The 8th was closer in the gubernatorial and Senate specials, but it narrowly backed both Republican nominees: Johnson won the seat 49-47, while Housley took it 48-47. However, Klobuchar won the district 54-43, very similar to her performance in the 1st.
We’ll turn next to the two seats that flipped to the Democrats. The 2nd District moved from 49.1-49.0 Obama to 46.5-45.3 Trump, but Democrats did much better there this year. While Democrat Angie Craig lost her 2016 race to Republican Jason Lewis 49-47, she turned the tables and beat him 53-47 this time. Walz and Smith won the 2nd by a similar 52-45 and 51-45 margin, respectively, while Klobuchar took it 59-38.
The 3rd was even friendlier to Team Blue this year. While the seat moved from just 50-49 Obama to 51-41 Clinton, Republican Rep. Erik Paulsen turned back a strong opponent in 2016 by a wide 57-43 margin. But Trump was utterly toxic here down the ballot in a way he wasn’t in 2016, and Democrat Dean Phillips unseated Paulsen 56-44. Walz and Smith each won 54-42 here, while Klobuchar took it 63-35.
There is one other seat worth highlighting. Veteran Democratic Rep. Collin Peterson has held the rural 7th District in the northwest corner of the state even as its become redder and redder, but he’s had a few close races recently. Peterson defeated underfunded Republican Dave Hughes by an unexpectedly close 52.5-47.5 win in 2016 as this seat was swinging from 54-44 Romney to 62-31 Trump. Hughes ran again in 2018 and once again attracted no help from national Republicans beyond a few supportive tweets from Trump, but he again held Peterson to a tight 52-48.
Hughes was likely helped by Team Red’s strong performances in statewide races. Johnson took the seat 57-40, while Housey won it by a similar 55-40. Klobuchar did carry the 7th, but by just a 48.4-48.3 margin. This seat will almost certainly turn red if Peterson retires, but if he runs again in 2020, there’s good reason to think he could be in for a rough ride.
The state’s remaining seats all look safe for the party that holds them. Klobuchar actually did managed to complete her sweep of the state’s eight House seats by winning GOP Rep. Tom Emmer’s 6th District 48.3-48.2, but both Johnson and Housey each won it by about 15 points. Democrats also have nothing to worry about in the safely blue 4th or 5th Districts.