Tah-daaaaaah...California has counted all of the ballots! We are done! Take a look at this, a clean unprocessed ballot report!
Wow...that’s tiny. Just take my word for it if you don’t have 10/10 vision, ha...it shows that every county has turned in their final report for certification, and that all known ballots have been accounted for and tallied. Straight zeroes down every column! It’s a thing of beauty.
So we can finally do a final rundown of the 2018 midterms in California. We’ve been tracking key races thus far, but seeing that it’s the end of the counting, I’m going to offer an expanded look of the results.
(But I won’t be covering every single race in the state. That would be...a lot.)
But before we get started, for those who love elections and would like a little mood music, I’m going to post this link once again. Let’s all get into our blue wave election night form of mind and prep ourselves for some exciting election math!
In this update:
This will cover results, with a few notes. Next week (or when I’m over this cold) I plan to follow up this series with a couple of diaries. In one, I’ll discuss our electoral process and some of the new laws and processes that are changing voting in California.
Then I might do a second follow-up and discuss the political landscape of California, and perhaps start a conversation for the community to contribute to where we think a bit about why CA has gone so blue, and what that means for our strategies moving forward.
But on to the results!
The 2018 Midterms in California
Total votes cast: 12,712,542
Turnout: 64.5% of registered voters. (19.7 million total registered for this election).
Historical turnout (% of registered voters)
2016: 75.3%
2014: 42.2%
2012: 72.4%
2010: 59.6%
2008: 79.42%
2006: 56.2%
That’s some impressive turnout. When have California midterms produced even higher turnout? Last time we beat this level would be 1982, with 69.8% turnout (and a mandate election for hometown Prez. Ronald Reagan). In 1974 we hit 64.1%...oh look, another data point making this era comparable to Watergate...great.
Factoids:
County w most votes: Los Angeles with 3,023,417, 57% turnout. Distant seconds are San Diego, 1,173,924 votes at 67% turnout, and Orange with 1,106,729 votes and 70% turnout. Looks like those competitive House races really boosted the turnout.
County w best turnout: Tie! Marin, where 132,434 votes represented 82%, and Alpine, where 626 votes (not a typo, lol) represented the same. It’s funny that Alpine would have lost or won the tie if like ten more people showed up, or didn’t. Ha.
County w worst turnout: Imperial, with 33,895 votes representing 48% turnout. Honestly, I really don’t know why. I think you have a lot of non-competitive seats, and a lot of non-engaged voters.
Key Races, final results
Governor
Gavin Newsom (D)
|
7,721,410
|
61.9%
|
John Cox (R)
|
4,742,825
|
38.1%
|
Lt. Governor
Ed Hernandez (D)
|
4,543,863
|
43.4%
|
Eleni Kounalakis (D)
|
5,914,068
|
56.6%
|
Sec State
Alex Padilla (D)
|
7,909,521
|
64.5%
|
Mark Meuser (R)
|
4,362,545
|
35.5%
|
Attorney General
Xavier Becerra (D)
|
7,790,743
|
63.6%
|
Steven Bailey (R)
|
4,465,587
|
36.4%
|
Insurance Commissioner
Richard Lara (D)
|
6,186,039
|
52.9%
|
Steve Poizner (NPP)
|
5,515,293
|
47.1%
|
Superintendent of Public Instruction
Tony K. Thurmond
|
5,385,912
|
50.9%
|
Marshall Tuck
|
5,198,738
|
49.1%
|
Note: This is a non-partisan race by state law. Both candidates are Democrats, with experience in positions with a Dem affiliation. This was Tuck’s second run for the position, and the election became something of a mandate on charter schools, which I know a lot of Kossacks think are a black and white issue, but in California the picture is really complicated. It was a pretty dang close one in the end, as you can see.
U.S. Senate
Dianne Feinstein (D)
|
6,019,422
|
54.2%
|
Kevin De Leon (D)
|
5,093,942
|
45.8%
|
Notes: This is a weird one, and I was curious to see how a Dem vs Dem race would play out. What’s interesting if you dive into the results is where the votes came from. On the surface, we might suspect that this is a centrist vs liberal race, and that ideology played a role. But interestingly, that doesn’t seem to be the case.
I pulled up CA’s five most conservative counties, and De Leon won them all handily, with 60-65% of the vote in each. Then I pulled up the five most liberal counties, and Feinstein won all but one with 60%+. De Leon’s coalition seems to be very liberal voters, and Republicans trying to unseat Feinstein. That’s not a criticism...he didn’t run that way. But that’s how the votes shape up. It’s like two third party coalitions trying to overcome the primary party...what a weird race.
State Legislature
Assembly
The CA Assembly has 80 seats. Going into this race Democrats controlled 55 to the GOP’s 25. The blue wave landed here as well, and Dems have won 60 seats. The GOP won 19, and one remains to be called, with the Republican holding a healthy lead in that race with all votes reported.
Just for informative purposes, we flipped the following districts: 16, 38, 40, 74, 76. The flips were largely SoCal — northern San Diego/Encinitas, coastal Orange County, Simi Valley north of L.A., and one in the eastern suburbs of L.A. In NoCal, the 16th flipped in East Bay, east of San Francisco.
The race that isn’t called is District 77, where Dem Sunday Gover currently trails GOP incumbent Brian Maienschein. Gover is trailing with 97,341 votes to 98,205. The votes are fully reported...I’m not sure what is holding up a call in this race. It’s probably a GOP win given the margin.
Assuming we lose 77, the math on the Assembly is pretty easy...60 seats to 20. Wow, a 75% supermajority.
Senate
There are forty Senators, with the four year terms staggered, so that 20 were up in 2018. The blue wave crashed here as well, with Dems flipping three districts — 12, 14 and 36 (that darn San Diego/Orange County dividing line once again. Man people hated Issa, lol).
This changes the balance in the Senate from 26/14 to a pretty staggering 29/11. Notably, this offers Dems two more seats than the 27 needed for a 2/3rd majority.
Ballot Measures
Sorry, I’m going to be a little lazy and post this link to the ballot measure results. As always in California, the results feel like an unpredictable blend of progressive and moderate ideas. I often have any idea what voters are going to do on these. A few individual notes.
Prop 3 was a complex bond for water projects. It failed narrowly, 50.7% to 49.3%. State and local parties were generally silent, with no endorsements. It had some good provisions, then some questionable provisions for agriculture. My personal vote was no, based on the idea that I don’t think that I, as a voter, should be trying to figure out California’s water policy. I had no endorsements to guide me, so my position was that this is something for the state legislature to debate and decide on.
Prop 5 gets a little wonkish. In CA we have something called Prop 13, which sets property taxes in stone when you buy a property (it’s complicated, but let’s leave it at that, ha.) So if I buy my home for $200k in 1990, and it increases in value to $1.5 million, my tax rates are locked in. If I sell that home and buy a different $1.5 million place, the tax rate resets on me (sad trombone). Prop 5 was a measure to allow the tax rates to be portable in some conditions...seniors could move them to a new home. Not a bad idea, but the real reason for it was to allow very rich individuals to move homes and retain low taxes. It failed with 59.8% opposition.
Prop 8 was a bit surprising to me. It sought to regulate prices at kidney dialysis centers. It would institute some common-sense regs requiring a certain percent to go to patient care, and other stuff. The CA Dem Party and most leftist groups endorsed it, but it failed with 59.9% opposition. The lazy answer as to why it failed is to point out that the opposition spent over $110 million, while supporters spent $25 million. But it failed pretty spectacularly, in an election where progressive healthcare issues were front and center. I’m not completely sure why it failed this badly….there might be more to the story. And this isn’t the first time that healthcare cost regulations have flopped at the ballot box here.
State Board of Equalization
California is the only state to have an elected tax board. It has four sitting elected officials. It’s a weird organization. Before this election, it was split 2/2 between the parties, but all four seats were open in 2018 and we won 3.
Of note, this was a pretty powerful organization previously, but in 2017 some new laws were passed that reformed the system, and the board lost about 90% of its staff and authority. The state formed two new departments, the Office of Tax Appeals and the Dept of Tax and Fee Administration. This contributed to all four seats being vacated by the incumbents, and I’m not sure how important or powerful these positions will be moving forward.
U.S. House of Representatives
I would love to cover and analyze all 53 races...but that’s a bit much, even for me. Dems now hold 46 seats to 7...an 87% supermajority — are you sure we aren’t a purple state?? Ha. This new balance represents the flipping of all seven ‘Clinton districts.’
And needless to say, the CA delegation now forms the indisputable foundation of Dem power in the House. I’m not saying this in the sense of boasting, or saying CA Dems are more important...but it’s just remarkable that California is offsetting so much of the Republican advantage from the South. What an amazing election.
Before offering final tallies in the races we’ve been following, I want to highlight a few CA Reps who I admire and respect. This is a totally subjective list, based on my experiences as a CA voter, but these are mostly very safe seats so they don’t get a lot of discussion during election season. But we did choose to send them all back to congress, and that’s worth mentioning.
CA-12, Nancy Pelosi — 86.8% of the vote. Whew...what a barn-burner, lol. Congrats to Nancy Pelosi...I have always been proud of her as a CA voter and I can’t express enough appreciation for her service. I look forward to seeing her in charge of the agenda once more. Given our weak, imbecilic president, I’m comfortable saying that as Speaker she will be the most powerful person in America.
CA-14, Jackie Speier — I would just like to say that Rep. Speier has been a voice of reason and intelligence during these last two dark years. I really admire her. Most probably know this, but she was shot and almost killed at Jonestown. She ran for the seat vacated by her boss, Rep. Leo Ryan, who was killed in that same attack. Her history and service are extraordinary, and I’m proud to see her return to Congress for the next session.
CA-27, Judy Chu. My current Rep! She won 79.2% of the vote here in this Pasadena district. She serves on Way and Means, so if any of you need a few billion dollars let me know and I will put in a good word for you, ha. Joking aside, we talked a lot about the remarkable women going to Washington as freshmen legislators, and we should also point out the remarkable women who have been carrying that banner for years.
CA-28, Adam Schiff. I live a couple of blocks from his district, and I would mention my gratitude for the way that he has handled the Trump years. His leadership and professionalism help keep me from falling into utter despair. Now let’s go nail some cronies!
CA-33, Ted Lieu. I think this is the only time in my voting life that I’ve had to weigh in on an open House seat. I lived in the 33rd when Waxman retired. It felt like a big responsibility...choosing someone for a very, very safe blue seat. I didn’t want to pull a Grayson, lol. Rep. Lieu has also earned my admiration and respect, for how he is willing to do his job with such passion and wit.
CA-43, Maxine Waters. Rep Waters is just such a remarkable icon and role model. There are just no words to describe how proud I am to have her sitting in the U.S. Congress, or how excited I am to see her return her committee to normal order and sanity. I think about the era she grew up in, and what she’s accomplished, and I don’t think there is any way that any of us could accurately gauge how hard she has worked for what she’s accomplished.
CA-53, Susan Davis. I will always have a special place in my heart for Rep Davis. I volunteered on her 2000 campaign, when we sought to dislodge incumbent Brian Bilbray. I learned sooooo much working on that campaign...both how noble politics can be, but also how rinky-dink it actually is, lol. In some ways, it all comes down to bingo parlors and swap meets. But I remember that campaign really well, and the excitement of flipping the seat. And something that I remember so distinctly is that Rep. Davis would come back to campaign HQ, and chat with staff, and inevitably she would always start discussing education. It was just such an important issue for her. She helped teach me that these candidates and Reps are more than names on a list...they are real individuals who have their own individual passions and truly want to serve their nation. So I congratulate Rep Davis on her win, and look forward to her contributions in the upcoming session.
House Flip Wrap Up
Ok, on to the seats we won! Here are the last of the House charts for 2018. These are the vote tallies as they accumulated throughout the month-long counting period. Let’s take one last look at how ballot counting proceeded in our seven flip seats.
CA-39 |
Cisneros (D) |
Kim |
Margin |
6-Nov |
73077 |
76956 |
-3879 |
8-Nov |
80539 |
83211 |
-2672 |
13-Nov |
92741 |
93452 |
-711 |
16-Nov |
110794 |
107774 |
3020 |
21-Nov |
119805 |
114284 |
5521 |
27-Nov |
123948 |
116918 |
7030 |
FINAL |
126001 |
118391 |
7610 |
|
51.6% |
48.4% |
|
CA-45 |
Porter (D) |
Walters |
Margin |
6-Nov |
88765 |
94998 |
-6233 |
8-Nov |
101955 |
103975 |
-2020 |
13-Nov |
116732 |
116471 |
261 |
16-Nov |
143144 |
135120 |
8024 |
21-Nov |
147944 |
138346 |
9598 |
27-Nov |
155787 |
144363 |
11424 |
FINAL |
158906 |
146383 |
12523 |
|
52.1% |
47.9% |
|
CA-48 |
Rouda (D) |
Rohrabacher |
Margin |
6-Nov |
91750 |
89068 |
2682 |
8-Nov |
105047 |
97719 |
7328 |
13-Nov |
118210 |
107612 |
10598 |
16-Nov |
140323 |
123401 |
16922 |
21-Nov |
146183 |
127837 |
18346 |
27-Nov |
155040 |
134918 |
20122 |
FINAL |
157837 |
136899 |
20938 |
|
53.6% |
46.4% |
|
CA-25 |
Hill (D) |
Knight |
Margin |
6-Nov |
83662 |
79545 |
4117 |
8-Nov |
90298 |
84272 |
6026 |
13-Nov |
101111 |
91105 |
10006 |
16-Nov |
111217 |
97759 |
13458 |
21-Nov |
121336 |
105110 |
16226 |
27-Nov |
128691 |
108940 |
19751 |
FINAL |
133209 |
111813 |
21396 |
|
54.4% |
45.6% |
|
CA-10 |
Harder (D) |
Denham |
Margin |
6-Nov |
55414 |
56701 |
-1287 |
8-Nov |
88961 |
85743 |
3218 |
13-Nov |
91066 |
87618 |
3448 |
16-Nov |
100717 |
95622 |
5095 |
21-Nov |
106200 |
99595 |
6605 |
27-Nov |
107709 |
100514 |
7195 |
5-Dec |
115886 |
105919 |
9967 |
FINAL |
115945 |
105955 |
9990 |
|
52.3% |
47.7% |
|
CA-21 |
Cox (D) |
Valadao |
Margin |
6-Nov |
33844 |
39475 |
-5631 |
13-Nov |
41739 |
44138 |
-2399 |
14-Nov |
46279 |
48260 |
-1981 |
16-Nov |
48787 |
50873 |
-2086 |
19-Nov |
51340 |
52308 |
-968 |
21-Nov |
54266 |
54713 |
-447 |
27-Nov |
56634 |
56105 |
529 |
FINAL |
57239 |
56377 |
862 |
|
50.4% |
49.6% |
|
Notes: this race was just so much fun to follow. You should see my excel sheet on the counting...it makes me look like a crazy person, lol. “Omg, what if I take the voting records from all precincts next to an Applebees...I bet that will tell me how many more votes Fresno is hoarding!”
How did my obsessive modeling do? Okay, so my first big analysis was mid-Nov when Cox pulled within a thousand. I tried to guess how many votes were left and how they would break. (That’s issue #5...you can verify, ha). I estimated 9,992 votes left in the race, which would produce a 1,264 Cox win. There were actually 9,968 votes left, producing a 862 Cox win. (I was overly optimistic about Fresno, which did really well for Cox, but slightly less than I thought).
I’m not bragging...well, maybe a little, but not Trumpy bragging...but my outstanding vote estimate was only 24 votes off, 0.25%. That feels like getting the dart right into the middle circle thingy. I think. I don’t play darts. There was an incident with a possum. But what a fun election to snag at the last minute!
CA-49 |
Levin (D) |
Harkey |
Margin |
6-Nov |
104446 |
87588 |
16858 |
9-Nov |
106052 |
89458 |
16594 |
13-Nov |
121311 |
99883 |
21428 |
16-Nov |
137341 |
110679 |
26662 |
21-Nov |
150536 |
118360 |
32176 |
27-Nov |
157215 |
122818 |
34397 |
5-Dec |
165103 |
127888 |
37215 |
FINAL |
166453 |
128577 |
37876 |
|
56.4% |
43.6% |
|
Courts
I don’t have a lot of notes on the judicial election results, because they are complicated and there are a LOT of them. And they’re non-partisan, so I don’t have a lot of input on ideological shifts. I can say that there weren’t really any prominent or controversial elections.
But I don’t want to neglect mentioning the courts, because they’re vital to a progressive agenda. I spent more time researching judicial candidates on my ballot than any other section...probably more than all others combined. That’s in part because there were like thirty races on my ballot...ugh. And that can be hard...how do I know I’m not voting for some Trumper? With the help of various trusted sources and progressive groups, I feel good about my votes.
So my bottom line on judicial positions is that I believe that the blue voting in California is working to seed our benches with qualified, solid progressive and liberal judges.
The end
For now. 2020 STARTS YESTERDAY, PEOPLE. Ha. Elections are fun.
Thanks for following this series. I had fun tracking this stuff. Like I mentioned above, in a week or so I plan to write up a follow-up that will discuss some of our new and upcoming election laws, and what role they might have played or will play in future elections. Then I might write up a follow-up that discussed the political climate in CA, and what this election tells us.