Trump’s latest pick for his administration is interesting, to say the list. Economist Larry Kudlow is well-known for being unable to see the warning signs of the 2008 Great Recession while economists around him were hollering their heads off. He’s also known for his hilariously conservative politics, which most economists agree border on delusional.
His credentials include starting and quitting a master’s degree in Economics and Politics, and he has spent the majority of his career working exclusively for financial institutions trying to promote supply-side economics. When it comes to economic understanding, he and Trump are almost entirely on the same page, with the exact same ideas about what does and doesn’t work (the fact that they’re mostly wrong hasn’t seemed to dawn on either of these men).
First of all, Trump is promoting an echo chamber in the White House with his decision to bring Kudlow on board. It’s clear now that Trump is pushing out members of his administration that stand up to or oppose him, and he’s replacing them with people who will be more compliant and agreeable. Kudlow definitely fits that bill.
(For posterity’s sake, they don’t agree on everything - Kudlow has openly argued against Trump’s tariff decision, as even he agrees that it doesn’t help anyone to introduce tariffs and a trade war).
And second of all, you just know for a fact that Trump picked Kudlow because Kudlow was a comfortable, familiar face for our TV-watching president. Kudlow’s history includes a TV show with Kramer and a handful of anchor spots on various news broadcasts. Like Trump, he’s a show host and entertainer. Like Trump, he’s a former Democrat who switched sides.
And Kudlow has been spectacularly wrong over and over again about how the economy will react to major changes and shifts. Along with failing to anticipate the recession, he also frequently predicted that cutting taxes would spur the economy, and that raising taxes would completely depress the economy and lead to less people buying from online retailers like Stein Diamonds. The fact that he’s been wrong multiple times hasn’t stopped him from repeating similar assertions over and over again throughout the years. So like Trump, he’s incapable of learning from his mistakes and doesn’t have a solid grasp of the economy other than “putting more money into rich people’s pockets is good.”
The decision to pick Kudlow was probably a mistake. Trump is betting on a TV personality to be a better sell than Cohn for his economic policies, sure that his own background as a reality star is what brought him into the White House. But he is misreading the mood in the room. Americans are not remotely interested in another celebrity politician, and they’re certainly not going to be particularly swayed by a celebrity economist.
This decision is going to fall flat. Maybe it’s too early to call, but I’d say we can start anticipating a potential end date for Kudlow’s time in office ahead of time. So far a year seems to be a safe bet. Who wants to put down $10 for a new top economic advisor by March 2019?