Polls in 6 Battleground States Show Voters Blame Republicans for Rate Hikes
Six new Public Policy Polling surveys in battleground states find voters will blame Republicans for the expected health care premium increases this summer by approximately 30 points and voters believe Republicans and President Trump have been actively undermining and sabotaging the Affordable Care Act.
ARIZONA Voters say they will blame Republicans if health care premiums increase this summer. 55% say they will hold Republicans in Washington responsible if rates increase, compared to just 29% who said they would not. A plurality of voters (49%) say they believe Washington Republicans and President Trump have been trying to undermine and sabotage the Affordable Care Act – and a majority of independent voters (57%) also say they agree with that statement.
INDIANA Voters say they will blame Republicans if health care premiums increase this summer. 49% say they will hold Republicans in Washington responsible if rates increase, compared to just 20% who said they would not. A plurality of voters (48%) say they believe Washington Republicans and President Trump have been trying to undermine and sabotage the Affordable Care Act – and a plurality of independent voters (44%) also say they agree with that statement.
MISSOURI Voters say they will blame Republicans if health care premiums increase this summer. 59% say they will hold Republicans in Washington responsible if rates increase, compared to just 25% who said they would not. A plurality of voters (47%) say they believe Washington Republicans and President Trump have been trying to undermine and sabotage the Affordable Care Act – and half of independent voters (50%) also say they agree with that statement.
MONTANA Voters say they will blame Republicans if health care premiums increase this summer. 55% say they will hold Republicans in Washington responsible if rates increase, compared to just 32% who said they would not. A plurality of voters (47%) say they believe Washington Republicans and President Trump have been trying to undermine and sabotage the Affordable Care Act – and a majority of independent voters (52%) also say they agree with that statement.
NEVADA Voters say they will blame Republicans if health care premiums increase this summer. 56% say they will hold Republicans in Washington responsible if rates increase, compared to just 32% who said they would not. A majority of voters (55%) say they believe Washington Republicans and President Trump have been trying to undermine and sabotage the Affordable Care Act – and a majority of independent voters (59%) also say they agree with that statement.
WISCONSIN Voters say they will blame Republicans if health care premiums increase this summer. 59% say they will hold Republicans in Washington responsible if rates increase, compared to just 31% who said they would not. A majority of voters (53%) say they believe Washington Republicans and President Trump have been trying to undermine and sabotage the Affordable Care Act – and half of independent voters (50%) also say they agree with that statement.
Put more succinctly:
While I’m on the subject:
2019 Rate Hikes: VERY early national projection (4 states only): ~16.1% w/2018 sabotage, ~3.8% without
Normally, I don't start posting national projections for my annual Rate Hike Project until I have at least filing data for at least a dozen or so states because the national weighted average jumps around so much early on. A "national average" of, say, 10% based on numbers from, say, Vermont, Wyoming and the District of Columbia (collective population: 1.9 million people) is gonna change radically once you add California or Florida to the mix if they're looking at a 20% hike, for example.
Having said that, seeing how advocacy organization Protect Our Care has decided to launch their own version of my Rate Hike Project, and seeing how I do have preliminary 2019 rate increase projections from at one large state (Virginia) and two mid-sized states (Maryland and Oregon), I've decided to go ahead and start posting the national projections early, with a major caveat that the national average will likely change dramatically until at least 2/3 of the states have been plugged in.
Of course, aside from that, the averages within each state will also change dramatically over the summer and into the fall as carriers modify their rate filings, jump in or out of rating areas and/or entire states and so forth, as happens every year right up until the final contracts have to be signed for the following year in late September.
With all that in mind, here's a very early look at the "national" picture across 4 states: Maryland, Oregon, Vermont and Virginia:
In addition, while this is based on a PricewaterhouseCooper projection, not actual rate filings, Covered California projects that their rates will go up around 9-13%, with 5-8 points of that being due specifically to the mandate being repealed.