UPDATED-Other Daily Kos diaries tonight are pointing to Ronan Farrow’s story in the New Yorker Magazine about another allegation of sexual misconduct while at Yale. There is no credible corroboration offered at this time. I would council Democrats to step lightly around this new allegation. It doesn’t have the evidentiary support that Dr. Ford’s has and there’s peril in conflating the two incidents.
A growing number of Republican operatives no longer want Brett Kavanaugh to be the nominee. In my conversations with two GOP campaign consultants, I am told there are now serious calls to pull him. He is a mortally wounded as a nominee and seen as a major drag on the party for the midterms and beyond. Republican Senators can’t pull his nomination however, that would have to be Donald Trump’s call, to “accept Judge Kavanaugh’s request to withdraw”.
Here’s why he will ultimately make that move after Thursday:
1. Trump has always been suspicious of Kavanaugh’s connections to the Bush White House. The nominee is tight White House Council Don McGhan who is out of favor and is leaving. Ivanka has already counseled him to “cut bait” on Kavanaugh.
2. The White House has a stable of Federalist Society approved judges teed up ready to plug in to the slot in October who can be confirmed in the lame duck session if necessary. They have until January 3rd to confirm another nominee.
3. When they pull him it creates at least the appearance of sensitivity to women’s issues and quells some of the backlash that is coming their way if he gets through.
4. Most importantly, they probably won’t have the votes after Thursday. Recent polling in Alaska and Maine clearly shows that Senators Collins and Murkowski are likely to lose their seats if they vote to confirm. They are not likely take a spear for this guy.
Donald Trump prizes his status as a “winner” above almost anything. If Kavanaugh does get confirmed, he will be blamed in part for the size of the trouncing. If he doesn’t get the votes to confirm, this will be seen as a huge loss for Trump.
As we know, Trump is going to do what’s in his best interest. Dumping Kavanaugh serves his best interests. Kavanaugh is a lose, lose for Republicans and Trump at this point.