After watching her Rollout so far I am even more convinced that Amy has shot and actually a very good one. The Event, Stephanopoulis softballs, Maddow’s full on fangirl, and now her first couple of campaign stops all show why.
I was a Rodie/Stage manager and whatever her BigLaw management style may say her event staff is absolutely top notch. It is one thing to manage an outside event in good or bad weather, it is 10 times as hard to manage an event in changing weather. I have not seen it done much better. A kickoff event better be well planned and well run, this was better then that. All staff can do right now is set the stage for the candidate.
Her first two interviews also show another big strength right now. For a variety of reasons and across the spectrum the DC press knows and likes her. This is an enormous asset as she raises her name recognition and free media dominates.
Her first couple of stops highlight just how good a retail politician she is, and how well she connects. Her ability to use her story and/or things she has worked on with her audience is impressive. Also how she is not trying to seal any deal right now, but “more think of me” is exactly the right tone.
Amy’s path is pretty straightforward. The Debates and Iowa.
What I don’t think people in general have considered about the Democratic Debates is how much they play to her persona. In a broad field against fellow Democrats she already sits pretty much in the middle of them and can show she played nice with almost all of them. These early debates by their nature will play against fighters. As much as the press will want a family squabble, we don’t and anyone who starts one will be punished. These debates have more potential for a candidate to disappoint then to shine.
If Amy doesn’t do well in Iowa the entire rationale for her candidacy collapses. So you know she has weighed that before jumping in. It is hard to pick a better place for her to start. As a popular Senator from a neighboring state, Amy has been traveling to Iowa for a decade to support Democratic candidates. The demographics fit and she can flood the state with homebased volunteers who will be seen as neighbors more then outsiders. The latter means a lot as Minnesota is a Statewide Caucus state and without any real statewide races this cycle there are a lot of experienced Minnesotans to pull from. In a caucus state being someone's 2nd or third choice can be a great advantage. If your candidate falls below the threshold you can then go with someone you like or someone you think your candidate can beat later on. She will eat up the Iowa State Fair I really don’t know if people understand how important that is in the political landscape. As with the Minnesota State Fair (in the past) that is where interest begins to turn to support. Amy is a natural in that environment.
As much as we may wish otherwise, Iowa and New Hampshire still play an outsized role. If only because the Press focuses on the horserace and the comforting rituals those two states have. Every single candidate has a lot riding on those two states, There will be a lot more losers in Iowa then winners and a lot fewer candidates going forward. As Nate Silver is using it the Wine Track candidates have more margin but the Beer Track candidates will have a tougher time. Iowa essentially will clear the Beer track of all but one. Pretty much guaranteeing at least a 3rd place finish in the following states. The Beer track because it is less dependent on passion and policy is actually the easiest to consolidate. Also because that is true the Beer Track will be pretty well cleared out before Iowa caucuses. If I’m right about that then it is the Wine Track candidates who will split the vote. Lets not forget that the “winner” in Iowa is likely to have something like 35%.
New Hampshire then becomes do or die of several other candidates. Warren and Sanders and Gellibrand to name a few. The Beer track candidate could easily win again with something in the mid-30’s.
The basic argument I’m making is that the Beer Track candidate will be one of the final two and that they will consolidate support much earlier in the cycle. I am also arguing that Iowa will play an outsized roll in that and that Klobuchar is well positioned for it.
With the Republican party in thrall to Trump he is almost certain to be there. With the burning Desire to beat him the dynamics of the race will resolve themselves very quickly. By the time the more progressive wing consolidates it just could be to late. As a more perceived Moderate like Klobuchar could have already established a firm foundation and seen as the best path.