Things to consider, as polling on impeachment begins to accelerate.
I consider what’s now happening in the House committees, “a pre-impeachment phase,” meaning preparation for a determination on whether or not to impeach.
That preparation includes collection of evidence (document and testimony) through congressional hearings. Some will happen in public, some behind closed doors. But Dems are promising to share as much as they can, at a later date, what exactly they are finding in their closed-door hearings.
At the same time, our Press continues to uncover more and more each day, concerning misdeeds, ethical violations and possible crimes committed by this administration. But as any prosecutor, DA or police officer knows, “knowing someone is guilty,” and “proving it in court,” are two very different things. There is a veritable mountain of evidence against the Trump Administration. Much of it in the public sector. The strategy is not necessarily to pick the low-hanging fruit, but to pick the fruit most likely to be ripen to a conviction in a Senate trial. House committees, Oversight, Intel, and Judiciary, are already on the move, but must proceed carefully to while strike the right tone.
So far, so good.
But impeachment is not merely an indictment and trial of a public official. It is also a political exercise, and as such, the time must be “ripe” for such an undertaking. This is why Democrats in the House (IMO) are being very thorough, meticulous, and above all scrupulous in their pursuit of evidence. Impeachment of a president is a very serious matter. It has happened only twice in our nation’s history. And neither time has it resulted in a conviction and removal from office.
So, the odds may be against its eventual success.
Yet, as many here have already commented as far as impeachment of this president, “if not him, who?” and “if not now, when?”
Well, we definitely have the “who” part right. If this president is not impeached, then impeachment will have lost all meaning and usefulness.
But we must be prepared to be patient about the “when.”
Things are off to a great start, with the Cohen hearings. His testimony has been well-received, and the following Quinnipiac poll shows that Americans overall believe he was telling the truth.
Here’s proof that you can make just about anything you want out of this poll:
But this finding is very good for us:
American voters believe Cohen more than Trump 50 - 35 percent. Cohen told the truth, 44 percent of voters say, while 36 percent say he did not tell the truth.
The President’s serial lying, all throughout his candidacy and presidency, has broken the vast majority of the American public’s trust of him. So much so, that an admitted tax-cheat, perjurer, and election-law-breaking man, who is awaiting a three-year stint in federal prison, is polling much higher than Trump on truthfulness.
That’s stunning.
Here are some more good numbers:
President Donald Trump committed crimes before he became president, American voters say 64 - 24 percent in a Quinnipiac University National Poll released today.
But U.S. voters are divided 45 - 43 percent on whether Trump committed any crimes while he has been president.
"When two-thirds of voters think you have committed a crime in your past life, and almost half of voters say it's a tossup over whether you committed a crime while in the Oval Office, confidence in your overall integrity is very shaky," Malloy added.
Other good news:
- Dems in Congress are up over R’s by 11 points, and we’re trending way up.
- Donald Trump Honest? — 30% NO to 65% YES, trending way down.
- Donald Trump’s “good leadership skills” rating is declining.
- “Cares about average Americans” is trending way down.
- “Handling North Korea” is even, but trending WAY down.
- “Good role for Children” is at 20% and trending WAY down.
He’s currently at 38% approval in this poll, so over half of the people who approve of Trump’s performance as president, would not want him anywhere near their children.
Food for thought, Democratic candidates.
- Voters approve 41 - 36 percent of the way Democrats in Congress handled Cohen's testimony before the U.S. House Oversight Committee.
- Voters disapprove 51 - 25 percent of the way Republicans handled the Cohen hearing.
Now comes what may initially look like, bad news. And it will no doubt be the headline that Fox News pulls out of this poll.
But they’re 59% — 35% against beginning impeachment proceedings right now.
I was at first surprised by how bad these numbers are. But as I’ve been doing research, I’ve found that they are actually not bad at all.
There are only two comparisons we can reference to find out where we are.
William Jefferson Clinton and Richard Milhous Nixon
Clinton
Just before impeachment proceedings began, his approval numbers were around 65% (GALLUP). They then shot UP sharply to the low 70’s and eased down to hit a low-point in April of 1999 of 53%.
Five days before Clinton was officially impeached, these were his “impeachment” numbers:
So, comparable to Trump’s
Trust was trending away from Clinton and toward Lewinsky.
Democrats in Congress were polling better than Republicans.
Voters wanted Clinton to stop talking about Lewinsky.
Nixon
When Senate Watergate Hearings began, and Archibald Cox was appointed Special Prosecutor in May, 1973 (ten months after the Watergate break-in) just 19% of Americans “Think President Nixon should be removed from office.”
Nixon’s approval rating in early 1973 was as high as nearly 70%. He had just won 49 out of 50 states in the 1992 election. Then by January, 1974 he was hovering around 25% for seven months before he eventually resigned in August, 1974.
Impeachment approval only rose above 50% a few short weeks before Nixon resigned. Right around the exact time that the House Committee recommended impeachment hearings. It polled in Mid-July at around 47%. Three weeks later it was at 57%.
So, for a president at 65% approval, and more superficial charges against him, impeachment numbers were at 38% YES — 61% NO just before impeachment started, which is about where they stand now for Trump.
But even for a lying, obstructing Richard Nixon at around 27% approval, impeachment polls began at 19% and rose steadily toward 50% until impeachment hearings were recommended.
The charges against Nixon were much more severe than Clinton’s.
But then, the charges against Trump may be even more serious.
Impeachment approval is almost never above 50%. So the 35% number is actually pretty encouraging, especially considering we’ve only had one public hearing so far.
I won’t get into our chances of conviction, with a 53R-47D Senate.
I WILL say, however, that if an impeachment starts by late 2019, Senators will be voting on conviction, with a national election breathing down their necks.
Meaning, voters will likely have a great deal of sway over their vote.
And their vote will likely have a great deal to do with their reelection chances.
What say you?
Tuesday, Mar 5, 2019 · 11:21:47 PM +00:00
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AlyoshaKaramazov
This is the game changer we've been looking for. Not the poll per se, but the political environment which shaped some of the impressions found in this poll.
You've got a lot of WWC believing Cohen. It's in the upper 30s. The Dems have changed the game and have taken Trump's 'no collusion' microphone toy away. This is about investigating a criminal enterprise for all of its criminal behavior in an environment in which 64% of Americans believe Trump committed crimes before he took office, and it's basically even on whether he committed crimes while in office. Russia matters are not necessary, sufficient or even required to impeach Trump (but make no mistake, there's a lot of Russia stuff in what Cohen provided and in what Schiff, Nadler and Cummings are investigating).
We're in the Watergate zone now. Mueller/SDNY have a lot of insurance and room to work. There will be a flood of indictments from Mueller/SDNY and a flood of revelations and criminal referrals from the House of Representatives.