Mason-Dixon is out with a poll today of the Alabama Senate race in 2020 in which Democrat Doug Jones faces a tough re-election campaign.
The poll shows Jones with a 45% approval rating with 44% disapproval and 11% unsure. The poll also shows that 40% say they will vote to re-elect Jones while 50% say they will vote for a Republican and 10% are unsure.
Those are tough numbers — but don’t forget that polls in Alabama are notorious for underestimating black turnout, which is what made the difference in the December 2017 special election..
One of the more interesting parts of this poll is the fact that Roy Moore leads a field of several GOP candidates, even though he hasn’t declared he’ll run.
Currently, Roy Moore – who Jones defeated in 2017 – is the top choice of GOP voters. Statewide, 27% of Republicans support Moore as the nominee, ahead of three current Congressmen – Mo Brooks at 18%, Bradley Byrne at 13% and Gary Palmer at 11%. DelMarsh (4%) and Tim James (2%) trail the field and a significant 25% are undecided.
The poll apparently did not include former Auburn football coach Tommy Tuberville, who has no political experience but very high name recognition.
The margin of error on this poll is 4%. It’s 5% for the GOP primary portion.
Moore would likely win the primary but not by enough to avoid a runoff. He won in 2017 because appointed incumbent Luther Strange was as popular in Alabama as a fire ant hill. If Mo Brooks were to also make it to the runoff, that would set up a GOP contest between the guy who trolled malls for underage girls and one of the crazier congressmen from Alabama. Needless to say, Jones’ best chance is if Moore runs and wins the nomination.
Not surprisingly, Jones is strongest in Montgomery, Birmingham and the Black Belt counties. When he won, he did very well in those areas and also in Huntsville, Mobile, Auburn and Talladega. He’ll need to pull off another effort like that — including a massive black turnout — if he is going to win again.
He did it once. He can do it again.