Race Ratings: For the first time since 2003, all three governorships that are regularly elected in the year following midterm elections have the potential to change hands. The playing field, however, is entirely in the South and, as you'd expect, still largely favors Republicans. Nonetheless, an unusual set of circumstances gives Democrats reason for hope in Kentucky, Louisiana, and Mississippi.
Daily Kos Elections is pleased to issue our first set of race ratings for the coming election cycle, focusing on these three gubernatorial contests. In Louisiana, Democratic Gov. John Bel Edwards is popular in the polls and faces underwhelming opponents, but the state's conservative lean makes his re-election prospects a Tossup. Meanwhile, in Kentucky, Republican Gov. Matt Bevin is deeply unpopular—in fact, he's the most disliked governor in the land—but his state's even deeper red hue gives him the advantage and makes this race Lean Republican.
Finally, there's Mississippi, an open-seat race where Democrats have landed their strongest possible candidate in state Attorney General Jim Hood. However, thanks to a Jim Crow provision in the state's 1890 constitution, Hood would have to win both a majority of the popular vote and a majority of districts in the state House, which is heavily gerrymandered in favor of Republicans. But even if Democrats successfully challenge this law in court, the GOP will remain the heavy favorite, leading us to rate this one Likely Republican.
Please click through for much more detailed explanations of these ratings, and stay tuned for our ratings of next year's contests for Senate, House, and governor as well.