Note: I chose a picture of Warren because I love her expression here and she’s holding her own per this polling data!
Thanks to RedDan navigating me through the Morning Consult site, I recently signed up for its weekly primary polling briefing. I don’t have a preference on a candidate right now, mostly because all I want to do is beat the hell out of Twitler and wait anxiously for the NY AG’s team to show up and arrest him outside his gilded cage. However, I thought I would share today’s report since it is showing some interesting trends.
Let’s get this part out first. Nate ranks MC a B- with a very tiny D lean. It’s ranks slightly better than Pew and close to CNN.
Full report here.
This week’s report features surveys with registered voters conducted from April 29, 2019 to May 5, 2019. The interviews were conducted online and the data were weighted to approximate a target sample of registered voters based
on age, race/ethnicity, gender, educational attainment, and region.
Our Democratic Primary results are reported using 15,770 interviews with registered voters who indicate they may vote in the Democratic primary or caucus. For those who say don’t know or no opinion, they are asked to pick a candidate they are
learning towards, which are factored into the results. The margin of error for potential Democratic primary voters is +/- 1%.
METHODOLOGY /
We have included an ‘Early Primary States’ demographic throughout this report to showcase who has momentum
going into the primary elections. The numbers reflect voters who live in Iowa, New Hampshire, South Carolina,
and Nevada.
Morning Consult’s weekly ranking released this morning shows Biden gaining in every single demographic group (if you consider white and black voters segmented by age the only demographics in the country) — from +4 with white voters 18-29 to +17(!) with black voters age 45-54. I was surprised at Biden’s gain with younger voters.
Bernie and Mayor Pete both seem to be losing as Biden gains. Biden is 21 points ahead of Bernie right now and picked up 6 points in the early primary states. Mayor Pete has dropped three points. Harris and Warren are staying relatively stable. Of the other 653 candidates, Booker is up, Beto down, Yang is actually showing up in these polls for some reason and the rest of the field is not even registering.
I am a little sad the Mayor Pete surge is dying, because I love the fact a married gay man is getting this far- this is what I want my America to be. I am also happy Warren and Harris are staying steady. Harris is freaking awesome and I cannot wait to see her next committee hearing just because I love watching her. Booker is hanging in, which is great as well!
I am fine with most of our candidates, especially the ones at the top (though Beto always reminds me of the really cool guy you adore in college but have to dump after graduation because of adulting, so I am really trying to keep an open mind on that one). We have a long road ahead and a single unifying goal. Let’s keep our eyes on that prize!