The latest state-by-state analysis of Trump’s popularity (or more accurately, his massive UNPOPULARITY) has been released by Morning Consult. The news for Mafia Don (as I so affectionately call him) is grim. Take a look at the map showing Trump’s current popularity. If I am seeing it correctly, TRUMP IS UNDERWATER IN 28 STATES. THESE STATES HAVE, IN TOTAL, 357 ELECTORAL VOTES. Not one single Clinton state has flipped since January 2017, when MC began measuring Trump’s popularity. On the other hand, Trump is underwater in Pennsylvania (-7), Ohio (-4), Michigan (-10), Wisconsin (-13!), Iowa (-8), North Carolina (-2), Florida (-2), and Arizona (-7)—all states Trump won in 2016. I should add that Trump is only at +3 in TEXAS and only at +3 in GEORGIA. Moreover, Morning Consult’s methodology is impressive:
About Morning Consult Political Intelligence
On a daily basis, Morning Consult surveys over 5,000 registered voters across the United States. Along with 2020 presidential election data, Political Intelligence tracks the approval ratings for all governors, senators, House members, the President, and more at the national, state and congressional district level. Each week, we will release a report with the most important findings on the 2020 election. Sign-up to receive that report in your inbox here.
About the state-level data:
Morning Consult conducted more than 2 million surveys with registered U.S. voters from Jan. 20, 2017 to Apr 30, 2019 to determine the approval ratings for President Donald Trump in each of the 50 states and Washington, D.C., for each month. These results use a statistical technique called multilevel regression with post-stratification (MRP) to estimate state-level public opinion from the national survey data for a specific month.
In each poll, Americans indicated whether they approve or disapprove of the job performance of Trump. For each question, they could answer strongly approve, somewhat approve, somewhat disapprove, strongly disapprove, or don’t know/no opinion. The surveys also included about 30 demographic questions.
Nate Silver rates Morning Consult’s national survey at B-. In MC’s most recent poll of almost 2,000 registered voters, done on 28-29 April, Trump’s approval rating (after Nate’s adjustment) was 40%-56%. Given the strong economy that Trump INHERITED from Obama, that result is stunning.
The overall message? Stop listening to people who say Trump is a shoo-in for a second term. Trump can be beaten, and beaten BADLY. It just so happens I have some ideas about how all this can be done. Please take a look HERE and HERE.
I’m already working on 2020, as are many of you. And you know what?
I LIKE OUR CHANCES.