The Florida March 17th Democratic Primary will be two weeks after Super Tuesday next year and well could cement the race.
"According to the new poll of 800 primary voters from Tyson’s firm, Tel Opinion Research, Biden leads Sanders by more than 2-to-1: 39 percent to 16 percent. Everyone else is in the low single digits."
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In this poll Harris and Warren were 3rd with an anemic 5% and Mayor Pete had 3% with all the rest at 1%.
"Fueling Biden’s dominance: Biden is popular with older white voters, who tend to form the bulk of the state primary electorate. And he is running well among African-Americans, who could comprise about a quarter of the primary electorate — they back Biden with 46 percent of the vote."
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“These strong image numbers are also translating to the open-ended ballot as he is pulling 46% of African-Americans in this sample,” Tyson wrote, pointing out that the two African-American senators in the race are barely registering with black voters. “What’s even more remarkable is Biden is pulling half of the African-American electorate even though Kamala Harris & Cory Booker both have 80% total name ID with this critical demographic.”
"Among all Florida Democratic voters, Biden has an 81 percent favorability rating in the poll, with 50 percent holding a “very favorable” opinion — a sign of deep support. In contrast, Sanders has a 68 percent favorability rating, with 32 percent viewing him very favorably."
With Super Tuesday including CA (Harris), Massachusetts (Warren) and Texas (Beto ), assuming all 3 are still in the race and perceived as viable, FL could be a real game changer in 2020.
538 PDF of the poll