(Perhaps one could put this into the “great minds think alike” bucket, but as I was preparing this story, and doing some googling, I stumbled across this FiveThirtyEight article that was just published today. But I’ll go ahead and post my story nonetheless as it isn’t exactly the same in content. For example, 538 focuses on the number of states that have switched whereas I focus on the percentage of delegates that will be affected.)
Whether one likes or dislikes caucuses as a means of tabulating votes for the various Democratic Presidential candidates, it’s accurate to say that the use of caucuses to earn Pledged Delegates in Democratic Presidential candidate nominations is rapidly becoming a thing of the past.
While I’ve lived in seven states as an adult, and voted in every election since 1976, I’ve never participated in a caucus. That fact doesn’t bother me a bit and my belief is that if I had to go spend 3 hours at the local elementary school arguing politics with my neighbors, I likely wouldn’t participate. You may feel differently.
The only advantage I can see of a caucus over a primary is related to the DNC pledged delegate allocation rule that a candidate must get a minimum of 15% in a given district to win any delegates. If one just votes in secrecy and then leaves (i.e., a primary), no one knows until the votes are counted if a candidate reached at least 15%. In a caucus, with the real-time knowledge of how many votes each candidate is getting, some bartering can occur such that a candidate may end up with delegates that she wouldn’t have gotten if the event were a primary. Be that as it may, it’s a fact that the DNC is actively encouraging state parties to move to primaries.
You may have noticed that some of the states that are switching away from caucuses for the 2020 nominating contest are moving to a party-run “Firehouse Primary” rather than to the more traditional state-run Primary. (Who runs the event generally means who pays for it.) In the stats I list below, I include firehouse primaries in with regular state-run primaries because even though a firehouse primary is party-run like a caucus is, they are essentially “primaries” because one votes in secret and then leaves. I’ve communicated with Tony Roza at The Green Papers and that’s how he considers them also. (If not already confusing enough, firehouse primaries are sometimes called “unassembled caucuses”.) See for example here.
The Role of Caucuses in the 2008, 2016 and 2020 Democratic Nominations
The table below shows the percentages of Pledged Delegates that were assigned via caucuses in 2008 and 2016, as well as the current percentage expected in 2020. (I say “current” for 2020 because as my recent story here indicates (and as does the linked FiveThirtyEight story), additional states may still change for 2020.)
Year % Pledged Delegates From Caucuses
2008 13%
2016 14%
2020 4%
One notes that in the two prior nominating contests, 13 and 14 percent of the Pledged Delegates were awarded via caucuses, while in 2020 that percentage will drop to 4 percent or less. While I wouldn’t characterize the 2020 contribution of caucus delegates as de minimis, it’s getting close to being the case.
For the 2020 nominating contest, these states have already decided to move away from caucuses: Alaska, Hawaii, Kansas, North Dakota, Colorado, Idaho, Minnesota, Nebraska, Utah, and Washington.
In closing, and as my story title suggests (with apologies to the late great Philip Roth), say goodbye to caucuses….and good riddance.