In traditional fashion, the “Men In Grey Suits”, leading members of the Conservative Party, have visited 10 Downing Street. As widely predicted, she announced that she will resign as Conservative Party leader on June 7. This is the day after a parliamentary by-election and following a State Visit by Donald Trump. He resignation will trigger a Conservative Party leadership election and she will stay as “caretaker” until her successor is selected.
The writing was on the wall yesterday when it was announced in the House of Commons that her planned timetable to get through her Brexit bill was being delayed. The announced timetable means that the backbench 1922 Committee will organise a sort of “primary” among sitting MPs. Candidates are nominated by their fellow MPs. It is thought there may be 10-20 intital candidates. In a series of elections among the MPs, the lowest drops out. Frequently other candidates with the next lowest votes will drop out too. Eventually the field will be whittled down to 2 candidates. The Party Consitution then calls for an election among all Party members conducted by postal ballot. This could take until July to finish and the winner announced. In the past few contests, the less popular of the two candidates has dropped out at this stage, obliviating the need for the postal ballot. There have been Tory MPs interviewed who have insisted a final membership ballot is essential this time.
Once the new Leader is announced, Theresa May will visit the Queen to resign as Prime Minister and advise her to call on the new Leader to form an administration. I described this more fully in my diary last week.
May made her announcement outside 10 Downing Street. At the end, her voice broke in tears.
The front runner at the moment is the former registered candidate for the Republican presidential nomination in 2016, Boris Johnson. He has been grooming his candidacy since at least April (new haircut, new arm candy). Although he is likely to be favorite in the country, the Conservatives have a record of having the favorite at this stage not succeeding.
UPDATE
Sir Vince Cable has, as he stated in May, resigned after the European Elections. This triggers a leadership election. To stand a sitting MP must get the support of 10% of MPs (i.e. another one) and be nominated by at least 200 members spread over at least 20 local constiutency parties. All candidates are voted on by the full membership using the SingleTransferable Vote system. The administration and counting is conducted by the independent Electoral Reform Society.
Nominations are now open and close on June 7, the day of May’s resignation. Sir Vince expects to hand over to the new Leader on July 23. This is the email sent to all members and supporters of the Liberal Democrats.
Last night, the Britishpeople finished voting in the European elections. The fallout is there for all to see, with the Prime Minister finally conceding this morning that she has reached the end of the road.
Ourcampaigning over the last three years has kept the cause of remaining in the European Union alive, and I now believe we have a strong chance of stopping Brexit. When the votes are counted on Sunday, I expect us to do well.
I want to thank everyone that lent us their support yesterday. I was very touched while campaigning around the country by the strength of feeling across the country and I feel like we are truly rebuilding the Liberal Democrats.
Our long and proud tradition of success in local government was revived this month by the best local election results in our party’s history.
In the last two years, we have gained 780 more council seats and 15 new councils.
And membership is at record levels with a strengthening base of supporters amongst students and young people.
I have said earlier this year that the time would soon come to hand over the leadership of the party to a new generation.That process begins today: I will be proud to hand over a bigger,stronger party on July 23rd.
Front runner is likely to be the current Deputy Leader, Jo Swinson. If the promised Liberal Democrat revival does emerge under her, it will be the second time since WWII that a Jo has led a liberal revival. I hope to be able to claim to have been a member when both were Leader, a LibDem with Jo Swinson and as a Liberal when Jo Grimond stepped back in as temporary Leader following the Thorpe scandal.