Republican pollster JMC Analytics has just published the first poll we’ve seen of the Sept. 10 do-over election for North Carolina’s 9th District, giving Republican Dan Bishop a small 46-42 lead over Democrat Dan McCready. Donald Trump carried this seat 54-43.
JMC, which says it conducted this survey independent of any client, also asked a few related questions before getting to the horserace. After respondents were asked if they approve of Trump and Democratic Gov. Roy Cooper (Trump posts a 55-39 score, while Cooper is narrowly in positive territory at 41-39), they were quizzed, “In last year's regular Congressional election, which candidate did you want to win the race?”
To that question, voters said they just barely favored McCready over 2018 GOP nominee Mark Harris, 41-40. Harris was initially declared the winner last year, but the State Board of Elections voided his 905-vote lead in the face of widespread evidence of fraud committed on his behalf and ordered a new election.
JMC then asked, “For the upcoming Congressional special election, would you rather a Democrat or a Republican represent you in Congress?” There the GOP leads 52-41, a much wider margin than Bishop’s 4-point edge on the named ballot. If these numbers are accurate, they suggest that McCready’s pitch as a Marine veteran with crossover appeal to voters who normally back Republicans is working, but not quite enough to reverse this district’s traditional lean.
However, as always, we caution that this is just one poll, and we’ll need to see more data to draw firmer conclusions about which way this race is headed.
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