This is an update of my earlier diary, Electoral Drama in Israel. Only seven weeks after Israel’s last parliamentary election, coalition talks have failed, and the Knesset has been dissolved. Israel will be holding elections again on September 17th of this year.
The unresolved sticking point has been the disagreement between Avigdor Liberman, a hardline right-winger but a secularist, and the Orthodox parties, over a proposed law eliminating the exemption to military service for yeshiva students. Without Liberman’s small party, Netanyahu’s coalition fell apart.
New elections will be costly and stressful. The Knesset will not be able to conduct any new legislative business until then, which will frustrate Netanyahu and the right-wing coalition which he almost had, but will give hope to the opposition. In particular, they will give Netanyahu only a short window in which to assemble a coalition and then pass laws to immunize him against criminal prosecution. The hearing which will probably finalize his indictment on multiple bribery-related charges has been scheduled for October 10th, immediately after the ten days of the High Holy Days October 2nd or 3rd, two weeks after the election.
Not much fundamental has changed since the last elections to change the mind of the electorate one way or the other. Liberman will try to portray himself as brave and principled. Netanyahu will try to portray Liberman as an egotist who broke the government and gave the opposition another chance. Some parties, fresh from the last elections, will have learned their lesson and will try to do better the second time around. It’s hard to tell at this point whether the right-wing block will strengthen or weaken. That depends greatly on what will happen to small parties which are teetering on the 4-seat threshold required to enter the Knesset.